We are about a week away from one of the greatest traditions in the city of Boston, and we’re zeroing in on the forecast. The weather pattern leading up to the 130th Boston Marathon has been very active, in classic spring fashion.

At this stage, I’m starting to feel a little optimistic about things, and so should you if you’re running or planning on lining the sidewalks along the 26.2-mile course for the race.

Between the European, the AI-Euro, the GFS, and even our in-house weather model that blends those with local observations, there’s pretty good agreement that a frontal system will sweep through the region sometime on Sunday, bringing a round of scattered showers with any raindrops exiting before the sun rises on Monday morning.

The timing of the front is obviously key. Of course, this will change a bit over the next few days, but given how progressive our spring weather pattern has been, I do think that Sunday’s front will likely clear the region before the wheelchair race begins Monday morning.

As I’m sure most of you already know, cooler, dry air will settle in behind the front, wicking away moisture from Greater Boston by early Monday. If the pattern holds, this will set up decreasing clouds throughout the day with cooler air.

What does the cooler air actually mean? Well, temperatures are expected to drop below normal for this time of the year. Instead of mild spring warmth, we’re looking at temperatures about 5 to 15 degrees below average for Eastern Massachusetts.

For runners, that could actually be a plus.

Early indications suggest race-morning temperatures starting in the low 40s, with afternoon highs only climbing into the mid- to upper 40s. That’s on the chilly side for spectators, for sure, but for distance runners, it’s often close to ideal temperatures.

Last year, morning temperatures edged into the mid-50s after scattered showers passed the night before. Hours later, the day hit a high of 73 under a clear, sunny day.

Winds, which can sometimes be a major factor along the course, are also expected to lighten up as the system pulls away. That could mean fewer headwind concerns, especially in those later miles when it matters most.

If anything, we may actually see a helpful north or northwesterly flow. Nothing major, certainly under 10 mph, but having the wind at the runner’s back will be more comfortable.

• The average daily high over the past 10 marathons has been 61 degrees. The years 2017, 2020, 2021, and last year all soared above 70 (a high of 73 last year).

• The coldest marathon day was in 2018, with the high reaching only 43 degrees. This time around might end up closer to the coldest marathon than the warmest.

• Four of the last 10 marathons saw rain, with 2023 the last year the course ran in wet conditions.

We will be closely monitoring the weather conditions all week, leading up to the Marathon on April 20. Keep up-to-date with the latest Globe forecast by signing up for our free daily Globe Weather Forecast that will arrive straight into your inbox bright and early each morning.

Ken Mahan can be reached at ken.mahan@globe.com. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.