Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young prediction, pick, time

Thiago Moises and Gauge Young meet on the UFC Fight Night 273 main card Saturday at Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.

Last event’s results: 4-1
UFC main cards, 2026: 33-17

Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young UFC Winnipeg preview

Moises (19-9 MMA, 8-7 UFC) has alternated wins and losses since January 2023, going 3-3 in that span. He’s coming off a first-round knockout loss to Jared Gordon in May 2025. After losing his UFC debut, Young (10-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC) picked up his first promotional win last August by unanimous decision.

Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young UFC Winnipeg expert pick, prediction

Filling out the main card is a lightweight bout between Thiago Moises and Gauge Young.

Even though both men have traded wins and losses as of late, this is an undeniable step up for Young.

Young, who made my prospects to watch list circa 2024, is a fighter I’ve been high on and like very much. However, after seeing more of him at a higher level, part of me worries that this could be the classic case of being pushed to the UFC too soon.

Moises is a fighter who I felt has been traditionally overrated and have subsequently looked to fade him way more than I look to back him, but these are the fights he traditionally tends to win.

Young is at the age where I expect to see fight-to-fight improvements, I’m just not sure how confident I can be in the American outside of the (albeit real) possibility of him exposing Moises’ suspect chin. And if this does end up being the distance striking battle that I’m forecasting, I think that Moises’ leg kicks and counters will be able to keep a cap on things, as I see this matchup looking a lot like his fight with Alex Hernandez.

The pick is Moises to edge out a competitive but clear decision win on the scorecards.