Maps and models: Tracking risk of tornadoes, supercells Wednesday evening

FOREVER GRATEFUL FOR THE IMPACT HE’S MADE. WE HAVE A TORNADO WATCH IN PLACE THROUGH 11 P.M. FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF NORTH ALABAMA, TOO, AND WE’RE CURRENTLY WATCHING THE RADAR, WATCHING FOR ANY TYPE OF ROTATION OUT THERE. YEAH, THERE IS ONE TORNADO WARNING DOWN SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY RIGHT NOW, SOUTHWEST OF MONTGOMERY. YOU CAN SEE THAT IN THAT RED BOX THAT’S SHOWING UP ON FIRST WARNING LIVE RADAR. AND WE’RE LOOKING AT THIS THING FROM TUSCALOOSA COUNTY. AND THAT IS A HEFTY LOOKING STORM JUST NORTH OF WHITEHALL THAT IS GOING TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH OF PRATTVILLE AND RIGHT INTO THE HEART OF THE MONTGOMERY METRO AREA HERE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE, SAY, THE BYPASS SOUTHWARD DOWN TOWARD HOPE HOLE IN BETWEEN DOWNTOWN AND HOPE HALL. THAT IS A I MEAN STORM THAT IS TRACKING IN THAT DIRECTION. SO RIGHT NOW AROUND CENTRAL ALABAMA, WE HAVE SOME SCATTERED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS IN CHILTON AND BIBB AND PERRY AND THEN A FEW MORE DEVELOPING DOWN HERE TOWARD MARENGO COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF HALE COUNTY AND INTO GREENE COUNTY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME WIND DAMAGE DONE FROM THE STORM THAT’S NEAR MONTGOMERY. WELL, WHEN THAT CAME THROUGH DEMOPOLIS EARLIER, AND GALLION, THERE WERE SOME TREES THAT GOT KNOCKED DOWN. BUT AT THIS MOMENT, THERE’S NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO ANYONE FROM THESE STORMS EXCEPT FOR THE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING THAT’S POPPING FROM THEM. WE’LL PUT A STORM TRACK ON THIS, AND I’M GOING TO TAKE YOU OUT ALL THE WAY TO ABOUT 43MPH. YOU CAN SEE THIS GETS CLOSE TO DEATSVILLE BY 613 THORSBY ABOUT 555 VALLEY GRANDE ABOUT 524 AND MARION ABOUT 459. SO MOST OF THIS STAYING SOUTH OF PLACES LIKE BRENT AND JEMISON. BUT THERE WILL BE SOME MORE STORMS ON THE WAY THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHER STORMS ARE STILL IN PROGRESS. THIS ONE’S PRETTY HEAVY. AND YOU CAN SEE HERE FROM FIRST WARNING LIVE RADAR, THE THE AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING THAT’S COMING OUT OF THIS RIGHT OVER TOP OF THE CITY OF TALLADEGA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME SMALL HAIL COULD BE FALLING FROM A STORM LIKE THAT. AND THIS ALSO TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. YOU JUST SAW THE THE RADAR UPDATE THERE, TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ROUGHLY ABOUT 40MPH. SO THAT’S THE DIRECTION IT’S TRAVELING UP HERE TOWARD MOUNT CHICKASAW AND THEN OVER TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY AND INTO CLEBURNE COUNTY, GOT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACROSS SHELBY COUNTY. AND THEN TO THE NORTH, THERE’S SOME ACTIVE WEATHER UP HERE IN WINSTON COUNTY. NONE OF THIS IS SEVERE AT THE MOMENT, BUT IT IS SOMETHING THAT WE’RE KEEPING AN EYE ON, WATCHING FOR ANY SIGNS OF MISCHIEF OUT OF A STORM SYSTEM LIKE THAT, OR A STORM COMPLEX LIKE THAT. THIS ONE MORE OF A LINE TRACKING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT CLOSE TO 45MPH. SO THIS IS MOVING RIGHT UP TOWARD CULLMAN AND BAILEYTON AND JOPPA AND VINEMONT HEAVY RAIN, LOTS OF LIGHTNING EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT. AND AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER GOES AT THE MOMENT, IT’S REALLY ONLY CONFINED TO THAT STORM THAT’S DOWN SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY. BUT WE DO HAVE A TORNADO WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 P.M. FOR A BIG CHUNK OF NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. DOES INCLUDE. BIRMINGHAM. TUSCALOOSA, PELL CITY, GADSDEN AND ANNISTON. AND THE TIMELINE FOR ALL OF THIS, WE’VE UPDATED IT JUST A BIT SINCE EARLIER TODAY. IT’S GOING TO BE OVER BY 7 P.M. IN NORTH ALABAMA, BUT I THINK IT’S ABOUT 11 P.M. TO 2 A.M. AT THE VERY EARLIEST BEFORE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDS, WE GO OVER TO METEOROLOGIST JORDAN WEST. NOW, JORDAN, WHAT’S THAT FUTURE TRACK SHOWING US ABOUT THIS TIMING? OH, WE GOT A LOT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR THROUGH AT LEAST 5:00. AND THAT’S WHERE THIS FUTURE TRACK KIND OF SHOWS. BUT AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING, THIS TURNS INTO LESS OF A SEVERE THREAT AND MORE OF A FLOODING THREAT. THIS IS 10:00. SO GOT SOME NASTY THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF BIRMINGHAM AT THIS POINT. AND THAT LAST WAVE OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE SEVERE WEATHER KIND OF LEAVES OUT OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AS EARLY AS 1:00. AND THEN WE JUST GET RAIN ON TOP OF RAIN, DOWNPOURS AND HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THIS IS 6:00 AT THIS POINT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WE ARE DRY BY 9:00 TOMORROW MORNING. NOW HERE’S A LOOK AT THE INSTABILITY OR THE STORM FUEL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO HAPPEN. WHILE THERE IS A GOOD BIT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH ALABAMA AS WE SPEAK, AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH 8:00, MOST OF THAT INSTABILITY IS SOUTH OF I-20, EVEN WEST OF I-65 AND MONTGOMERY SOUTHWARD. SO THIS IS LOOKING MORE LIKE A SEVERE THREAT FURTHER SOUTH OF BIRMINGHAM AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH LATER ON TONIGHT. AND THAT INSTABILITY IS OUT OF HERE BY 7:00. SO HOW MUCH RAINFALL COULD WE SEE WITH ALL OF THIS? WELL, MANY SPOTS OF NORTH ALABAMA HAVE SEEN A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL. SO WE’RE TALKING ABOUT UP TO AN INCH, MAYBE AN INCH AND A HALF MORE FOR PARTS OF NORTH ALABAMA, BUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA, LIKELY BETWEEN, SAY, CALERA, SOUTHWARD, MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHWARD AS WELL. WE’RE GOING TO GET A BAND OF RAIN THAT COULD ACCUMULATE THREE, FOUR, FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL. AND THAT’S WHERE THAT FLOODING THREAT COMES INTO PLAY. SO WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER ALSO OUTLINES A BAND OF RAINFALL THAT COULD COLLECT PLENTY OF RAIN. THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME ISSUES LATER ON TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT ONCE ALL THE RAIN IS OUT OF HERE, WE’RE BACK TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND THEN TEMPERATURES PLUNGE BACK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT’S BRINGING ALL THIS RAIN. WE’RE BACK IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S COME FRIDAY MORNING. AND THEN FOR MOTHER’S DAY WEEKEND, NOT COMPLETELY DRY SATURDAY ON THE DRIER SIDE, MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS. SUNDAY. HIGHS NEAR 80. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AND OCCASIONAL THROUGH THE DAY. AND THEN WE COOL OFF. BY THE TIME WE WAKE UP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH LO

Maps and models: Tracking risk of tornadoes, supercells Wednesday evening

Updated: 5:35 PM CDT May 6, 2026

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Wednesday is First Warning Alert Day due to the risk of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms Wednesday evening.

We designate a First Warning Alert Day when there is dangerous, severe weather that could be life-threatening. Watch the latest forecast in the video player above.

A First Warning Alert Day means that the weather could potentially be life-threatening. Have your severe weather plan ready, ensure your NOAA Weather Radio is working, and make sure alerts are turned on and location is on for the WVTM 13 app.

The National Weather Service issued a Tornado Watch until 11 p.m. for Autauga, Bibb, Blount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Chilton, Clay, Coosa, Dallas, Elmore, Etowah, Fayette, Greene, Hale, Jefferson, Lamar, Lowndes, Marengo, Marion, Montgomery, Perry, Pickens, Shelby, St. Clair, Sumter, Talladega, Tallapoosa, Tuscaloosa, Walker, Winston.

The Storm Prediction Center upgraded Central Alabama’s Wednesday threat level to an “ENHANCED RISK” of severe weather.

This is primarily driven by the risk of a few supercells that could produce tornadoes.

The tornado threat is now in the “medium” category because of the risk upgrade.

The SPC’s outlook also includes a “CIG 1” tornado threat. That means the expectation is that tornadoes of EF2 intensity will be possible.

The latest timeline for Wednesday night’s heaviest rain and storms. It will not rain the entire time. This is the estimated window of time when we expect storms to be most widespread in different regions across the state.

A flood watch has been issued from 4 p.m. Wednesday through Thursday morning. 2-4 inches of rain is forecast with some isolated higher amounts.

This is a representation of what the line of storms should look like Wednesday evening.

The slow southward progress of this line of thunderstorms will bring very heavy rainfall. A narrow band of 2 to 5 inches of rain will be possible through Wednesday night.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) outlines a risk of some flash flooding for the entire state with the greatest threat over southwest Alabama.

The slow movement coupled with a direct pipeline of both Gulf and Pacific moisture will allow for some communities to see more than 3 to 5 inches of total rainfall.

For 12 consecutive years, WVTM 13 First Warning Weather has been the source for the certified most accurate forecasts in Central Alabama, showcasing unwavering commitment to delivering dependable weather updates.

WVTM 13 is available on all platforms, ensuring you can access accurate weather updates whenever and wherever you need them. Whether it’s on TV, social media, or through our free mobile app, you’ll stay connected to the latest forecasts and alerts.

“We always prepare you for what’s next. Warning you first to every weather change in every forecast. It’s our commitment to you.”



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