Time to Buy Stock, Hold or Wait?

D-Wave Quantum Inc. QBTS is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2026 results tomorrow, before market open. The quarter was likely supported by record early-2026 bookings and the Fortune 100 QCaaS agreement, alongside growing enterprise and government interest in Advantage2 systems. However, elevated operating expenses, integration costs tied to the Quantum Circuits acquisition, continued concerns around profitability and a broader technology-sector sell-off during the period, driven by interest-rate uncertainty and heightened geopolitical tensions, weighed on investor sentiment.

As a result, QBTS shares plunged 44.9% during the January–March period.

D-Wave earnings missed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and topped on one occasion, the average negative surprise being 345.60%.

January-March 2026 Share Performance of QBTS

Zacks Investment Research

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How Are Estimates Poised for D-Wave?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the first-quarter bottom line has remained unchanged at a loss of 8 cents per share over the past 60 days. The estimated figure indicates 300% wider loss from the year-ago figure.

The consensus mark for first-quarter revenues is pegged at $5.01 million, indicating 66.6% year-over-year dip.

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What to Expect From D-Wave’s Q1 Performance

Commercial Progress and Market Expansion

Following a transformative 2025, the first quarter of 2026 is expected to have witnessed continued commercial momentum for D-Wave Quantum. The company earlier disclosed that January 2026 bookings alone exceeded total fiscal 2025 bookings, supported by a $20 million system sale to Florida Atlantic University and a two-year $10 million Fortune 100 QCaaS agreement. The company also highlighted expanding engagement across government, aerospace, telecom, defense and enterprise customers, reinforcing expectations for sustained bookings growth and broader adoption of the Advantage2 platform.

However, broader macroeconomic uncertainty and technology-sector weakness during the quarter may have pressured investor sentiment despite strong commercial traction.

Technology Execution and Deployment

Operationally, first-quarter expectations include continued deployment of Advantage2 systems and progress in integrating Quantum Circuits following the acquisition completed early in the quarter. The company also emphasized the development of dual-rail gate-model technology and cryogenic control advancements. D-Wave also launched a dedicated U.S. Government Solutions business unit and demonstrated missile-defense simulation capabilities with Davidson Technologies and Anduril. These developments likely contributed positively to the company’s first-quarter performance. However, these may have contributed to higher operating expenses tied to R&D expansion and integration efforts in the first quarter.

Financial Trends and Balance Sheet

Gross margins may remain relatively strong given the company’s system and subscription mix. However, adjusted EBITDA losses could widen sequentially as D-Wave aggressively invests in gate-model development, government expansion and new R&D facilities. Despite these pressures, the company’s substantial liquidity position following the 2025 capital raises continues to provide significant operational flexibility.

Competitive Positioning

Rigetti Computing RGTI: Rigetti is scheduled to report its first-quarter 2026 earnings today, after the market close. During the first quarter, the company announced a Novera QPU sale to the University of Saskatchewan, adding to previously disclosed system purchase orders scheduled for 2026 delivery. Management continues emphasizing progress toward higher-qubit chiplet-based systems and fidelity improvements as key long-term differentiators. However, near-term revenue growth is still expected to remain relatively modest compared with larger peers, while continued R&D investments and commercialization efforts may have kept profitability under pressure in the first quarter.

IonQ IONQ: The company has already reported a strong first-quarter 2026 performance, with revenues surging 755% year over year and full-year guidance raised to $260-$270 million. The quarter reflected accelerating commercial momentum across quantum computing, networking, sensing and security offerings, supported by system sales, expanding international adoption and growing remaining performance obligations. IonQ also announced the sale of its first 256-qubit system and highlighted DARPA-related momentum alongside several government and enterprise partnerships. However, the quarter was also marked by aggressive expansion, acquisition-related spending and elevated adjusted EBITDA losses.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for QBTS Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for D-Wave this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here.

Earnings ESP: D-Wave has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

D-Wave’s Valuation

The stock is currently trading at a lofty forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 140.01, which is significantly higher than the industry average of 3.75. This exceptionally high forward P/S ratio raises the risk of a sharp pullback if first-quarter results or the guidance for the forthcoming period disappoint.

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Our Take

Given D-Wave’s accelerating bookings momentum, expanding government and enterprise partnerships and the Quantum Circuits acquisition, the company appears well-positioned from a long-term technology and commercialization standpoint ahead of its first-quarter 2026 earnings. However, elevated operating expenses, integration costs, ongoing profitability concerns and uncertainty around the pace of revenue recognition from system sales may continue to put pressure on near-term financials. Broader macroeconomic uncertainty and weakness across high-growth technology stocks could also weigh on investor sentiment despite strong operational momentum. Therefore, existing investors may be better off holding QBTS stock ahead of the earnings release rather than making aggressive new bets before greater clarity emerges.

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