Best Bets, Picks & Predictions for NYK-SAS Game 2 & Friday MLB

We haven’t had a day like yesterday in a while.

Yesterday stunk for a variety of reasons. We got skunked, going 0-3 and dropping more than three units on the day. It wasn’t great, and we haven’t had one of those days in a while. But my goodness, Vegas, what was that?

I thought Carolina was going to win. I thought that was the right side. I thought the game would go over, and I did bet that, so at least we got there. But Vegas was up 2-0 going into the third period and gave up three goals.

Vegas could have won both games on the road to start the series, just like it did against Colorado. Instead, we’re heading back to Vegas with the series tied and likely looking at a six or seven-game series.

If the Golden Knights wind up losing the Stanley Cup, they’re going to look back at Game 2 and wonder how they let that one get away.

Overall, it was just a bummer day.

Our seven-game Hard Rock Bet of the Day winning streak also came to an end, so let’s see if we can get back on track today.

Mikal Bridges Over 17.5 PRA (-110)

Let’s begin with Game 2 between the Spurs and Knicks.

I honestly don’t know what happens tonight. It’s one reason why I hedged my Spurs future. I know some people don’t like hedging. I don’t care. I learned how to hedge from someone much smarter than me, and I’m comfortable taking a position and then guaranteeing a profit when the opportunity presents itself.

As for tonight, I’m staying in the prop market.

The first play focuses on Mikal Bridges.

Bridges had an incredible run going over 17.5 points, rebounds, and assists. Dating back to the Atlanta series, he had cashed this prop in 10 straight games before finally missing in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

In Game 1, he finished with nine points, three rebounds, and three assists. That gave him 15 combined PRA.

What made it even stranger is that Bridges had scored in double figures in every game since April 30.

Knicks vs. Spurs Game 2 Pick: Mikal Bridges Over 17.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-110) (1.1 units)

Stephon Castle Under 23.5 Points & Assists (-115)

For my second play, we’re fading Stephon Castle.

Castle’s points and assists prop is set at 23.5, and he hasn’t gone over this number in five straight playoff games. Game 1 was another miss.

Castle scored 17 points and had three assists. That left him below the 23.5 total.

The trend gets even stronger when filtering for games at home with San Antonio favored. Using those filters, Castle has not gone over 23.5 points and assists since April 19 against Portland during the regular season.

Five straight home games as a favorite, and he’s stayed under every time.

Knicks vs. Spurs Game 2 Pick: Stephon Castle Under 23.5 Points & Assists (-115) (1.15 units)

Mariners vs. Tigers: Mariners Moneyline (-120)

The third official play heads to Major League Baseball.

We’re fading Framber Valdez. The Tigers have not won a game started by Valdez since April 30. Every start he made during the month of May resulted in a loss, and all but one of those losses also failed to cover the run line.

Valdez enters with a 2-4 record and a 4.39 ERA. At home, things have been even worse, with him owning a 1-2 record and a 5.14 ERA while allowing 12 earned runs in 21 innings.

Seattle counters with Bryan Woo. His road numbers aren’t great, but I’m more interested in fading Valdez than backing Woo.

Seattle has been one of the better road teams in baseball, and this feels like a good spot to attack.

Mariners vs. Tigers Pick: Mariners Moneyline (-120) (1.2 units)

Hard Rock Bet of the Day: Red Sox Moneyline (+128)

For today’s featured play, we’re heading back to baseball. The Red Sox take on the Yankees.

Boston got smoked by Baltimore yesterday, but much of that damage came in the first inning when Brayan Bello struggled badly.

Now Boston turns to Sonny Gray, who has been excellent on the road. Over his last three road starts, he tossed six innings and allowed one earned run in a 9-1 win over Cleveland, six innings and one earned run in a 3-1 win over Kansas City, and five innings without allowing an earned run in a 4-0 win over Detroit.

The Yankees will be without Aaron Judge, who is expected to miss four to six weeks with a rib injury. That’s a massive loss for New York.

Ryan Weathers gets the ball for the Yankees. He owns a 3.52 ERA and the Yankees have won three of his last five starts, but his last outing against the Athletics saw him allow five earned runs.

Without Judge in the lineup and with Boston’s best road pitcher taking the mound, this feels like a good opportunity to grab plus money.

If you’re looking for another angle, the under eight is worth consideration as well.