How oil, gold, and stock markets reacted in the month after previous global shocks

The US and Israeli attacks on Iran that commenced over the weekend shocked global markets and led to jarring price moves in the S&P 500 (GSPC), oil, and gold.

President Trump, meanwhile, pledged that the war could last for four to five weeks — or even “be fought ‘forever’” with existing munitions stockpiles, suggesting that the volatility is likely to continue.

Indeed, Tuesday brought a steep stock sell-off amid new strikes that increased fears of a drawn-out war.

But a Yahoo Finance analysis of these three key markets — oil, gold, and stocks — in previous moments of geopolitical shock found a familiar pattern: Prices have often spiked on the first days of trading but tended to normalize within weeks, even when the fighting was protracted.

The review covered nine key moments in recent history, starting with Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait through the recent capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. It found that the state of these three markets when the fighting began looked very different a month later.

TOPSHOT - A plume of smoke rises after a strike on the Iranian capital Tehran, on March 3, 2026. Iran stepped up its attacks on economic targets and US missions across the Middle East on Tuesday as the US president warned it was
A plume of smoke rises is seen after a strike on the Iranian capital Tehran on March 3, 2026. (ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images) · ATTA KENARE via Getty Images

Perhaps the starkest example occurred last June during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran. During that conflict, US forces intercepted Iranian attacks and bombed Iranian nuclear sites.

The hostilities began on June 13, 2025, sparking immediate jumps in oil and gold prices and a drop in stocks. After 30 trading days, all three markets had moved in the opposite direction.

The spot price of Europe Brent oil jumped up almost 7.3% between June 12 and 13. But prices were actually down 0.6% at the end of 30 trading days, according to the analysis of prices from the US Energy Information Administration.

The pattern was similar with gold. Yahoo Finance’s own data there shows a one-day move upward of 1.49% during that conflict, followed by a 30 trading-day decline of 1.39%.

The S&P 500 followed a similar pattern — but in reverse — dropping 1.13% on the first day of trading after the bombs started falling, then rising 5.70% after 30 days of trading.

The effect of the Iran strikes is so far adhering to that initial historical pattern.

The market for Brent Crude oil ended last Friday at a price of $72.48 per barrel. It ended Monday at $78.16, a jump of over 7.8%. Gold was up almost 2.7% over that same time frame.

The S&P 500, meanwhile, began Monday in the red before rallying and ending the first day of trading since the attacks began slightly in the green before dropping significantly in early trading on Tuesday.

Few analysts, meanwhile, were willing to predict where prices might end up.

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