Toplines

The US-Israeli combined force appears to be increasingly targeting the Iranian internal security apparatus after killing Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28. The targeting of internal security institutions is consistent with the US and Israeli stated objective of toppling the Iranian regime.[1] The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Ground Forces Sarallah Headquarters in Tehran, which is responsible for security in the capital region and plays a significant role in suppressing internal dissent.[2] The Sarallah Headquarters oversees the 10th Seyyed ol Shohada Operational Division in Karaj, Alborz Province, and the 27th Mohammad Rasoul Ollah Operational Division in Tehran City.[3] The combined force also struck the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) headquarters in Tehran. The LEC is the regime’s first line of defense against protests.[4] The combined force killed LEC Intelligence Chief Gholamreza Rezaian on February 28.[5] Anti-regime media separately reported that the combined force destroyed the Tehran Revolutionary Court and published a video of explosions near the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) headquarters in Tehran.[6] IRIB is the Iranian state broadcaster that the regime uses to disseminate propaganda.[7] The IDF struck the IRIB headquarters in the 12-day war in June 2025.[8]

The combined force also struck internal security targets that played a role in suppressing the December 2025-January 2026 protest movement. The combined force reportedly struck Basij bases in Kermanshah and Tehran provinces, including bases that were reportedly involved in the suppression of the December 2025-January 2026 protests.[9] The targeting of Iranian internal security institutions could degrade Iranian security forces’ ability and willingness to quell potential internal unrest against the regime. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on March 1 that Israel will strike “thousands” of targets in the coming days and called on Iranians to “free themselves from the chains of tyranny.”[10]

The combined force has continued its decapitation campaign targeting senior Iranian leadership. The decapitation campaign likely seeks to limit Iran’s ability to conduct retaliatory attacks by disrupting Iran’s command-and-control and set conditions for regime change by removing senior leaders. The IDF confirmed that it killed Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) Chief Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi.[11] Mousavi replaced former AFGS Chief Mohammad Bagheri after Israel killed Bagheri in June 2025.[12] Iranian state media separately reported on March 1 that the combined force killed 12 IRGC members in Kashan, Esfahan Province.[13] It is unclear how the IRGC members died, although Kashan is home to several Iranian military sites, such as the IRGC Aerospace Force Shahid Karimi Drone Base.[14] The New York Times reported on March 1 that Iran’s “top intelligence chief” survived a targeted strike but that “Iran’s intelligence agencies were decimated.”[15] This report follows reports on February 28 that the IDF may have killed Iran’s “intelligence chief.”[16] ISW-CTP previously noted that “intelligence chief” likely refers to either Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib or IRGC Intelligence Organization Chief Majid Khademi.[17]

The Iranian Expediency Discernment Council appointed Ali Reza Arafi, who was a trusted member of Khamenei’s inner circle, as the third member of the Leadership Council.[18] The Iranian constitution stipulates that the president, the judiciary chief, and a member of the Guardian Council will assume the responsibilities of the supreme leader when he dies until the Assembly of Experts convenes to select a new one.[19] Arafi is a senior Iranian cleric who has served as a member of the Assembly of Experts since June 2021.[20] Khamenei has promoted Arafi to senior positions within the regime in recent years, highlighting Khamenei’s trust and satisfaction with Arafi. Khamenei appointed Arafi as the Qom Friday Prayer Leader in 2015, head of all seminaries across Iran in 2016, and a member of the Guardian Council in 2019, for example.[21] The Guardian Councill is responsible for supervising elections and screening legislation.

The IDF outlined a three-phase plan to achieve air superiority over western and central Iran.[22] Achieving air superiority over these areas will help the combined force achieve their stated objectives.[23] The first phase involves dismantling Iranian air defense systems and missile launchers in western Iran, the second phase involves achieving air superiority over western Iran and “paving the way to Tehran,” and the third phase involves achieving air superiority over Tehran.[24] The IDF used a similar approach during the June 2025 Israel-Iran War.[25] This strategy enabled the IDF to achieve air superiority over large parts of Iran and subsequently achieve its objectives of degrading the Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The IDF continued to target Iranian missile launchers and air defense systems in Iran on March 1.[26]

Iran may have started attacking vessels around the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the combined strike campaign. Iran seeks to impose a cost on the United States and its partners and compel them to pursue a ceasefire before achieving the objective of toppling the regime. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that a vessel was struck by an unspecified projectile around 17 nautical miles northwest of Mina Saqr, the United Arab Emirates, on March 1.[27] The strike caused a fire, but the vessel’s crew was able to extinguish the fire and resume their journey.[28] UKMTO separately reported that an unspecified projectile struck a vessel around 50 nautical miles north of Muscat, Oman.[29] The strike caused a fire in the vessel’s engine room, but the vessel’s crew was able to get the fire under control.[30] A European Union official told Reuters on February 28 that the IRGC warned vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz that “no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz.”[31] TankerTrackers assessed that Iran hit one of its own vessels.[32] ISW-CTP cannot verify this claim.

The combined force has continued to strike Iranian missile launchers to limit Iran’s ability to conduct retaliatory attacks targeting US bases, Israel, and other targets. The IDF struck a missile base north of Qom City, Qom Province, on March 1.[33] The IDF said that Iran stores and launches Ghadr 1-H ballistic missiles at the site.[34] Ghadr missiles are medium-range ballistic missiles with a range of 1,950 kilometers.[35] Iran previously used Ghadr missiles during its April and October 2024 attacks on Israel.[36] The IDF struck the Qom site in June 2025. The IDF also confirmed that it struck a ballistic missile launch site at the Khomein Missile Base in Markazi Province on February 28.[37] The IDF struck this base at least twice during the June war.[38] Commercially available satellite imagery captured on March 1 shows damage to two structures at a missile site in Garmdareh, Alborz Province.

The IDF also struck IRGC bases to degrade the Iranian ballistic missile program. The IDF likely struck the IRGC Aerospace Force Bakhtaran (Panj Pelleh) underground missile base near Kermanshah City, Kermanshah Province.[39] An Iranian journalist posted footage of smoke rising from the hills near the IRGC Najaf-e Ashraf Operational Base on March 1.[40] The Bakhtaran (Panj Pelleh) underground missile base is located about two kilometers east of the Najaf-e Ashraf Operational Base. The Bakhtaran (Panj Pelleh) underground missile base reportedly stores Qiam-1 and Fateh-110 ballistic missiles.[41]