All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz

Thursday’s top batter prop bets

Tyler Stephenson | OVER 0.5 HR (+910)
Projection: 11% chance of this bet hitting, with a $6.05 EV
One reason to bet this: Stephenson has been hot recently, putting up a 95.1 mph average exit velocity over the last two weeks.

Miguel Vargas | OVER 0.5 RBI (+189)
Projection: 39% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.61 EV
One reason to bet this: Vargas is an extreme fly ball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Kansas City, ranked worst of all teams playing today.

Munetaka Murakami | OVER 0.5 RBI (+177)
Projection: 41% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.02 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to left at 14.5 mph in this matchup, the second-best conditions for batters today.

Aaron Judge | UNDER 0.5 H (+180)
Projection: 43% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.07 EV
One reason to bet this: Extreme fly ball hitters like Judge tend to be less successful against extreme fly ball pitchers like Jeffrey Springs.

Thursday’s top pitcher prop bets

Ryan Weathers | OVER 5.5 K (-121)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.96 EV
One reason to bet this: The Athletics project to have the most strikeout-prone set of batters (25.3 K%) on today’s slate.

Seth Lugo | OVER 2.5 ER (+107)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.33 EV
One reason to bet this: The Chicago White Sox have done a strong job as a team optimizing the launch angle on their hardest-hit balls. At 16.1 degrees, they rank second overall in baseball since the start of last season.

Rhett Lowder | UNDER 2.5 ER (-133)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.06 EV
One reason to bet this: The Marlins’ 91.7 mph exit velocity on fly balls grades them out as MLB’s No. 27 offense since the start of last season.

THE BAT X: Team Projections

Top Betting Trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year’s play.

Colorado Rockies Run Line
The Rockies have won this bet in five consecutive games. (+5.40 Units / 94% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -126

Athletics Game Total UNDER
Road games for the A’s have hit the under in 11 of 15, with two pushes. (+8.80 Units / 54% ROI). Current odds: 8 @ -108

Miami Marlins Game Total OVER
Marlins games have hit the over in eight of the last 10. (+5.75 Units / 53% ROI). Current odds: 8 @ -108

Chicago White Sox Game Total OVER
Chicago’s road games have seen this bet go over in four of the last five. (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI). Current odds: 9.5 @ -102