All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Tuesday’s top batter prop bets
Bryce Harper | OVER 0.5 HR (+630)
Projection: 15% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.20 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind projects to be blowing out to right at 16.8 mph in this contest, the second-most favorable of the day for batters.
Matt McLain | OVER 0.5 RBI (+288)
Projection: 30% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.94 EV
One reason to bet this: Over the past 14 days, McLain has posted a 24.8-degree launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.
Will Benson | UNDER 0.5 H (+115)
Projection: 55% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.28 EV
One reason to bet this: Benson has not been honed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits of late, hitting balls between -4 and 26 degrees just 12.5% of the time over the past seven days.
Tuesday’s top pitcher prop bets
Jacob Misiorowski | UNDER 6.5 K (+120)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.51 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 2 venue in the league for suppressing strikeouts, according to my projections, is Fenway Park.
Taj Bradley | UNDER 5.5 K (+126)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.54 EV
One reason to bet this: A hitters’ umpire (Quinn Wolcott) is scheduled to be in charge of the strike zone in today’s game.
Kevin Gausman | OVER 6.5 K (+112)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.50 EV
One reason to bet this: In his last start, Gausman performed well and accumulated 10 strikeouts.
