Melting snow and multiple rounds of heavy rain have led to Flood Warnings and rises on many rivers/streams across Northern Michigan. Rain (locally heavy) will continue with two rounds. the first Monday night and another Tuesday night (mostly south). We dry things out late week with more rain expected Saturday. Behind that enough cold air works in for some snow showers to end next weekend on Sunday.
A FLOOD WATCH is in effect for the entire area through Wednesday due to the combination of melting snow and potential for some heavier rain which could lead to rises on rivers/streams and lowland flooding as well.
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS continue on the Au Sable River near Mio and points downstream due to water release from a dam. Also, on the Manistee River for areas downstream from the Tippy Dam as water is being released there as well.
FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM EDT SUNDAY APRIL 19TH… *WHAT…Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is occurring. *WHERE…Areas in Emmet and Cheboygan counties within the Cheboygan River basin UPSTREAM of the Cheboygan Dam. This includes the Maple River, Crooked Lake, Crooked River, Burt Lake, Indian River, Mullet Lake, and the Sturgeon River until 630 PM EDT Sunday Apr 19 or when water levels begin to recede.
MONDAY NIGHT: The next round of heavy rain and possible severe weather arrives Monday night. Thunderstorms will initiate over Wisconsin and gradually migrate toward Northern Michigan arriving mainly after 9 p.m. The risk for severe thunderstorms will be highest south and west of a Traverse City-Clare line with large hail and stronger winds possible with a few storms. Elsewhere overnight, passing rain (locally heavy) and some thunderstorms. Most of the rain will be east and out of the area by early to mid-morning Tuesday. Overnight lows from 38-56F. East to SE wind 10-15 mph.
TUESDAY (APR 14): Any leftover rain from Monday night will depart by mid-morning with most if not the rest of the daytime hours relatively dry and perhaps a little window for some sunshine in the afternoon hours. Highs of 45-75F. Variable wind 5-10 mph.
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT: It appears another round/cluster of thunderstorms will billow up mainly between 7 pm.-1 a.m. especially along/south of a Traverse City-Alpena line. Large hail/damaging winds are possible with any storms although a tornado spin-up can’t be ruled out either, especially south of highway M-55 Tuesday mid to late evening. Once again, very heavy rainfall in spots where these storms cross over. Somewhat less rain north of the aforementioned areas. Lows from 38-50F.
DMA HRRR 18HR Rainfall.png
WEDNESDAY (APR 15): While a few showers remain in the cards Wednesday, widespread rain is not expected although skies remain on the cloudier side of things. Highs from 52-65F.
THURSDAY (APR 16): Morning clouds and some fog will give ground to some increasing sunshine as we head deeper into Thursday afternoon. Most if not all day will end up dry which is a nice break from all the recent rain. Highs Thursday from 52-67F.
LONGER RANGE FORECAST: The weekend looks wet and perhaps a little snowy. Another front arrives with widespread rain later Saturday. That front will sweep in colder air that will lead to snow showers at times Sunday as temperatures tumble into the 30’s/low-40’s by the end of the weekend.
-Meteorologist Joe Charlevoix
