With Colts quarterback Daniel Jones restricted by the transition tag, he can’t receive offers from other teams until the new league year begins. Once Wednesday at 4:00 p.m. ET arrives, what will happen?

He’ll make $37.833 million in 2026 if he accepts the transition tag. Before then (and after 4:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday), he can sign an offer sheet with a new team. The Colts would have five days to match, with no right to compensation if they don’t. (He’d also fall out of the compensatory pick system, if he leaves via an offer sheet.)

For Jones, any long-term offer will be weighed against the one-year, $37.833 million bird in the hand.

Albert Breer of SI.com reported earlier this week that the Colts’ “initial offer” (which means it wasn’t the final offer) to Jones was “in the range of Sam Darnold’s three-year, $100.5 million deal” with the Seahawks. Per Breer, the Jones camp responded by saying that, if the franchise tag is applied, “a deal worth $50 million per year would be more in the ballpark” of what Jones would take.

While some (including whoever does the social-media posts for SI.com) are misinterpreting Breer’s reporting to mean Jones asked for $50 million per year, the more accurate characterization is that, if the Colts had applied the $43.895 million franchise tag, the standard approach to turning that into a long-term deal ($43.895 million in 2026, with a 20-percent bump for 2027) would have resulted in a two-year payout of $96.569 million.

So, yes, if the Colts would have used the franchise tag, $50 million per year would have become a reasonable ballpark.

But the Colts didn’t use the franchise tag. They went with the lower level. That creates the basis for a two-year payout of $83.237 million ($37.833 million for 2026 with a 20-percent bump for 2027). That works out to an average of $41.62 million.

The transition tag also opens the door to other offers. Complicating that process is both the availability of other veteran quarterbacks and Jones’s current health. He’s recovering from a torn Achilles tendon suffered in December 2025, and he has had multiple other significant injuries during his seven-year career.

The Colts seem to be banking on no one breaking the bank for an offer sheet Indy won’t match. Which makes the transition tag the starting point for a possible long-term deal that would land in the range of $41 million per year — and which also gives Jones the ability to collect $37.833 million for 2026 and play under the transition tag.

It also gives the Colts the ability to let him do just that, with a decision for 2027 and beyond made based on how 2026 goes, both as to production and as to whether he avoids another significant injury.

Which brings us back to the question that will be resolved at some point after 4:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday: Will another team put together an offer sheet that he’ll sign?