Montana State walks into Sacramento sitting 13–8 and 7–1 in Big Sky play, with a real chance to keep pressure on the league’s top rung. Sacramento State is 6–13 and 2–5, but this is exactly the kind of spot where their season has had teeth, because the home/road split is night and day. Montana State just won 91–88 at Weber State, and that kind of road shot-making is why this group keeps showing up in tight finishes. The number is Sacramento State +4.5, and the handicap starts with whether the Hornets can drag the game into their preferred chaos without donating empty trips. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Sacramento State Hornets and the Montana State Bobcats.

Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.

The shape is clean: Montana State is slower by profile at 69.3 possessions per game, while Sacramento State runs hotter at 74.6. Montana State’s attack is built on shot quality and spacing volume, with a 55.6% eFG and a massive 45.9% three-point attempt rate, plus strong ball security at 13.4% turnovers. Sacramento State’s offense is the opposite kind of bet: the efficiency is volatile, but the foul pressure is real, with an 0.396 FT/FGA rate that sits near the top of the country. That contrast is the whole game. Montana State wants clean threes and tidy possessions. Sacramento State wants whistles, a set defense, and a scoreboard that keeps moving even when the jumper goes cold.

Montana State’s scoring is balanced enough to survive a road whistle, and it’s why laying points would have been tempting. Patrick McMahon (G) gives them the steady diet, sitting at 14.3 points per game on 48.3% shooting. Jed Miller (G) is the connective piece, at 13.2 points and 5.3 rebounds per game, and he keeps their offense from becoming one-note. Davian Brown (G) supplies the third scorer at 12.6 per game, so Sacramento State can’t just load one matchup and call it a night. On the other side, Sacramento State’s trio is legit and it fits the foul-first identity. Mikey Williams (G) is at 16.8 points and 4.5 assists per game, and he’s the guy who can keep a game glued together possession-to-possession. Prophet Johnson (G) brings the two-way strain with 16.3 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game. Jeremiah Cherry (F) adds another real body at 15.5 points and 8.2 boards per game, which matters against a team that wants to win the glass quietly.

Montana State vs. Sacramento State pick, best bet

Sacramento State is 6–1 at home and 0–12 away, so the building clearly changes their offense and their resistance. The clearest cashable lever is free points: they already live at that 0.396 FT/FGA rate, and their team free-throw shooting sits in the high-70s range. If the whistle shows up early, Montana State’s spacing edge stops feeling like separation and starts feeling like a one-possession game all night. And Sacramento State doesn’t need a perfect shooting night to justify +4.5; they need one “hot segment” from deep to keep Montana State from ever building margin. You saw the clean version against Northern Arizona, where the Hornets hit eleven threes and went 18-of-20 at the line, which is exactly how a plus-points ticket ages well.

The refutation is why I’m taking points, not getting cute with anything bigger. Sacramento State’s shooting profile can still betray them, and the season-long three-point percentage has been rough enough to invite droughts. Montana State’s offense is also built to travel, because it doesn’t beat itself, and it can win the possession game with low turnovers and high-quality threes. That’s the favorite’s win script, and it’s real. But +4.5 is paying for the home split and the foul-line leverage, and I’d rather be paid for volatility than lay points into a free-throw game.

Best bet: Sacramento State +4.5. I’ve got Montana State 78, Sacramento State 75.

Best bet: Sacramento State +4.5 (-115) vs. Montana State

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