Key events
This blog has now closed, but we are continuing our coverage of the ongoing situation in the Middle East – and more information on the US-Iran eleventh-hour ceasefire – here. Thanks for following along.
US senator Lindsey Graham, who has been one of the biggest backers of the US war on Iran, has said he would like to see a “congressional review process” before any diplomatic solution is set in stone.
At this early stage, I am extremely cautious regarding what is fact v fiction or misrepresentation. That’s why a congressional review process like the one the Senate followed to test the Obama Iranian deal is a sound way forward.
Fair and challenging questions with a full opportunity to explain, and a healthy dose of sunlight is generally the right formula to understand any matter.
Graham has been an Iran hawk throughout his congressional career, and was reportedly among a group of Republicans who persuaded Trump that dealing with Iran could be a vital part of his second-term legacy.
Last month Graham was part of a Republican effort to vote down a measure that would have required Trump to receive Congress’s permission before continuing the war with Iran.
UN secretary general welcomes US-Iran ceasefire
The UN secretary general, Antonio Guterres, says he welcomes the US-Iran two-week ceasefire while urging all parties to work toward long-term peace in the Middle East.
“The secretary general welcomes the announcement of a two-week ceasefire by the United States and Iran,” his spokesperson, Stephane Dujarric, said in a statement.
He added that the UN chief “calls on all the parties to the current conflict in the Middle East to comply with their obligations under international law and to abide by the terms of the ceasefire in order to pave the way toward a lasting and comprehensive peace in the region”.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-backed armed factions, said it would suspend its operations in Iraq and across the region for two weeks, according to a statement issued on Wednesday.
Their announcement follows the agreement of a provisional two-week suspension of hostilities between the United States and Iran.
Israel says ceasefire does not include Lebanon
The prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, has issued a statement saying he supports the US decision to suspend attacks against Iran for two weeks but the ceasefire does not include fighting against Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.
The Pakistani prime minister, Shebaz Sharif, had previously said the ceasefire extended over Lebanon.
Israeli attacks on Lebanon since the start of the war have killed more than 1,400 people, including 126 children, and displaced more than 1 million, according to Lebanese authorities. The renewed Israeli war on Lebanon was launched after Hezbollah – the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group – fired rockets into northern Israel in response to the killing of the former Iranian supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, in joint US-Israeli airstrikes.
Iran’s uranium will be ‘perfectly taken care of’, says Trump
Donald Trump has claimed the provisional ceasefire with Iran is a “total and complete victory” and says the issue of Uranium would be “perfectly taken care of” in a phone interview with Agence France-Presse shortly after the announcement of the truce.
“One hundred percent. No question about it,” Trump said.
Trump also said that the issue of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile would be “perfectly taken care of” under the deal “or I wouldn’t have settled”. The president had previously said “I don’t care” about the regime’s stockpiles when questioned about it, arguing it could be monitored by satellite.
Iran’s supreme council has said they have agreed to a two-week temporary ceasefire, with further negotiations to take place in Islamabad on Friday 10 April. Their starting point for negotiations, which Trump had previously called “workable”, includes Iran retaining control of the strait of Hormuz and the complete withdrawal of all US military forces from the region.
It remains unclear when the ceasefire will go into effect, with attacks and missile strikes continuing across the region.
Amy Hawkins
Trump said that he believes China pushed Iran towards agreeing to a two-week ceasefire that was announced hours before Trump’s deadline to bomb Iran’s power plants and bridges, a move which could have constituted war crimes. Trump’s comments confirm earlier reports that China encouraged Tehran to reach a ceasefire in the war with the US and Israel that already has killed thousands of people in Iran and Lebanon and blocked global shipping routes.
The ceasefire was announced soon after Russia and China blocked a resolution at the UN security council that aimed to reopen the strait of Hormuz. The vetoes blocked the UN from authorising the use of force to reopen the crucial waterway through which one fifth of the world’s oil passes. Russia and China said that the resolution was biased against Iran.
China’s ambassador to the UN, Fu Cong, said that the draft resolution “fails to capture the root causes and full picture of the conflict” and that resolution risked providing a “legal veneer” for the use of military force. The UK said that vetoeing of the resolution was “deeply regrettable”.
Trump told Agence France-Presse “I hear yes,” when asked if Beijing had been involved in pressuring Tehran to negotiate.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has praised the two-week ceasefire in the Iran war, calling it a “victory” for the United States.
“This is a victory for the United States that President Trump and our incredible military made happen,” Leavitt wrote on X.
The success of our military created maximum leverage, allowing President Trump and the team to engage in tough negotiations that have now created an opening for a diplomatic solution and long-term peace.”
Mark Saunokonoko
Oil prices plunged by almost 15% after Donald Trump held off on his threat to bomb Iran into the stone ages on Tuesday night, and Iran’s foreign minister said passage through the strait of Hormuz would be allowed for the next two weeks under the management of its military.
Although Tuesday’s news was immediately embraced by markets, the outcome of the US-Iran talks is far from certain, and how the strait will be reopened and managed beyond the two-week grace period is yet to be determined.
Brent crude oil, the international standard, dropped 14.4% to $93.48, and futures for US crude oil sank 14.7% to $96.27 a barrel. The prices remain well above where it was at the start of the war.
Meanwhile as trading in Asia got under way, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up almost 3%, Japan’s Nikkei rose more than 4% and South Korea’s Kospi gained 6%.
In the bond market, Treasury yields eased on word of a potential ceasefire. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.24% from 4.30% earlier Tuesday.
What is in Iran’s 10-point plan and will the US agree to it?
Since negotiations began between the Trump administration and Iran over the status of Tehran’s nuclear programme almost a year ago, their vastly different demands and the limits to what each side would concede have proved a barrier to any lasting agreement.
But as he announced he was suspending his plans to escalate attacks across Iran on Tuesday evening, Donald Trump said that he had received a “workable” ceasefire proposal from Iran.
The details of any plan are likely to be hammered out in future talks; Pakistani prime minister Shebaz Sharif has invited delegations to Islamabad for talks on Friday 10 April. However Iranian state media was quick to claim victory, with graphics on state TV flashing up with the words “Trump accepts Iran’s terms for ending the war”.
But what are those terms – and could Trump possibly agree to them?
According to state media, Iran will only accept the war’s conclusion once details are finalised in line with a ten-point peace plan that they have reportedly submitted to the US via Pakistani intermediaries.
The list of the 10 points published by state media include a number of conditions that the US has rejected in the past. According to Iranian state media, the plan requires:
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The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran.
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Continued Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz.
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US military withdrawal from the Middle East.
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An end to attacks on Iran and its allies.
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The release of frozen Iranian assets.
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A UN Security Council resolution making any deal binding.
“It is to be noted that the adoption of such a resolution shall render all these agreements binding under international law and shall constitute a significant diplomatic victory for the Iranian nation,” the country’s Supreme National Security Council said in a statement.
The call for Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz – a conduit for around a fifth of the world’s oil that has been effectively blocked to maritime traffic since the start of the five-week conflict – has been highlighted as of particular concern, as Iran held no control over the strait before the conflict began.
According to reports, the proposal would see Iran impose a fee of roughly $2m and would use the proceeds – which it would share with Oman – to reconstruct the country after more than five weeks of US and Israeli strikes.
Democratic senator Chris Murphy leapt on the comments from Iran, telling CNN “who knows if any of that is true, but if this agreement gives Iran the right to control the strait that is cataclysmic for the world.”
However experts and analysts have suggested that Iran’s maximalist demands are unlikely to be agreed to by the US, but will rather form the basis for talks.
An Israeli military official has said the country is still attacking Iran, even after White House officials briefed that Israel had agreed to the ceasefire.
Despite the provisional ceasefire, attacks have continued across the region.
Minutes after Trump said he had agreed to suspend a devastating attack on Iran by two weeks and was ready for a ceasefire, Israel’s military warned that Iran was firing missiles toward it.
Blasts were heard from Jerusalem and Jericho on the occupied West Bank, reporters in the region said.
In person talks have not been finalised, says White House
The White House is considering in-person talks with Iran but they have not been finalised, press secretary Karoline Leavitt has said.
“There are discussions about in-person talks, but nothing is final until announced by the President or the White House,” Leavitt said after Iran said it agreed to talks with the United States to begin Friday in Pakistan.
It remains far from clear what shape a future deal between the US and Iran could take. Iranian state media is saying that the ceasefire deal is built upon a ten point plan that they submitted to the US, which includes maximalist demands that the Trump administration has rejected in the past.
Danny Citrinowicz, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council, has offered a sobering assessment of the outcome of America’s five week war, saying the conflict was launched with “sweeping promises: regime change in Iran, the dismantling of its missile and nuclear programs, and preventing it from threatening the Strait of Hormuz.”
“And where are we now?” he asks.
The regime is still firmly in power.
Its missile capabilities are damaged still intact
It still holds roughly 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60%.
And in return?
A ‘controlled’ reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, something that wasn’t even truly closed to begin with.
Let’s be honest: this is not a strategic victory.”
Authorities in Abu Dhabi are dealing with a fire at the Habshan gas processing facility, the Abu Dhabi media office said early on Wednesday, as Gulf states activated air defences following threats of missile and drone attacks across the region.
Attacks across the region have continued despite the declaration of a provision ceasefire between the US and Iran.
Lauren Gambino
US political leaders and many Americans breathed a sigh of relief on Tuesday evening, after Donald Trump announced a provisional ceasefire deal following threats to destroy Iran’s “whole civilization”.
“I’m glad Trump backed off and is desperately searching for any sort of exit ramp from his ridiculous bluster,” Chuck Schumer, the Senate Democratic leader, said on Tuesday night.
Several Republicans cheered the president’s decision, casting it as shrewd and tactical.
“Excellent news,” Senator Rick Scott of Florida said. “This is a strong first step toward holding Iran accountable and what happens when you have a leader who puts peace through strength over chaos and weak appeasement policies.”
Senator Lindsey Graham, one of the chamber’s loudest and most aggressive Iran hawks, said on Tuesday evening he shared the hope that “we can end the reign of terror of the Iranian regime through diplomacy”.
But he added: “We must remember that the strait of Hormuz was attacked by Iran after the start of the war, destroying freedom of navigation. Going forward, it is imperative Iran is not rewarded for this hostile act against the world.”
American journalist Shelly Kittleson, who was recently kidnapped in Baghdad, has been released, US secretary of state Marco Rubio has announced.
The U.S. Department of State extends its appreciation to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the Department of War, U.S. personnel across multiple agencies, and the Iraqi Supreme Judicial Council and our Iraqi partners, for their assistance in securing her release.”
In a post on social media, Rubio said her release reflects the “Trump Administration’s steadfast commitment to the safety and security of American citizens, no matter where they are in the world.”
Kittleson, a freelance journalist, has for years built a respected journalism career across the Middle East, particularly in Iraq and Syria.
Rubio said on Tuesday that the US was working to support her safe departure from Iraq.
Mark Saunokonoko
Oil prices fell, bonds rallied and stocks surged as an apparent two-week ceasefire in the Middle East was seen as potentially paving the way for a lasting peace and resumption of Gulf oil and gas exports.
As his deadline came within two hours of passing, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he agreed to suspend bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks.
On that news, US crude futures fell around 9% to $103 a barrel, S+P 500 futures leapt 1.6% and the US dollar fell broadly.
Futures pointed to broad gains for Asia’s stock markets, and 10-year US Treasury futures jumped about 15 ticks.
Details about the ceasefire are still very sketchy. However, Iran has said it would guarantee safe passage for maritime traffic through the vital strait of Hormuz for two weeks, announcing the pause would be used for talks with the US on ending the war, starting Friday in Islamabad.
Markets in Asia are about to start opening. We’ll stay on top of market movements through the day.