Andy Schooler previews Monday’s last-16 action at the Australian Open in Melbourne.
Much was made of the fact that Casper Ruud served 25 aces on Saturday during his straight-sets win over Marin Cilic.
It was the best such tally of the Norwegian’s career and showed he’s serving very well right now; he also banged down 10 in his first-round win over Mattia Bellucci.
Shelton’s serve is more renowned. As expected on these pages, he served 15 aces in three sets against Valentin Vacherot in the last round but he’s often criticised for not using that weapon to its full extent. Not every first serve is a 140mph bomb.
The price that catches the eye here is the 7/1 about Ruud serving the most aces.
While he trails on the ace count across the tournament so far by 49-40, long-term readers will know I place much greater weight on the head-to-head – this is a market which is largely about how well a specific player can get a read (and a racquet) on his opponent’s serve.
And across the three previous meetings, the score is 20-16. Filter it down to hardcourt meetings and that becomes 17-16, with Shelton having won 10-8 when they last meet in Acapulco in 2024 and Ruud edging home 8-7 in the other surface clash.
Throw in how well Ruud served on Saturday and this looks likely to be much closer than the odds suggest and I can’t resist a bet on the outsider here.
I opposed Keys the other day, suggesting she wouldn’t cover the handicap against Karolina Pliskova.
Sadly, the third time in this year’s Australian Open, my handicap bet fell one game short.
It’s been that sort of tournament so far but now may offer the chance to switch horses and back the defending champion.
I can certainly understand why Pegula is the favourite – she’s enjoyed the better results so far in 2026. The world number six is yet to drop a set in Melbourne but she’s played little of note, indeed two of her opponents have been ranked outside the top 100 and this will be a big step up.
Keys has also progressed to the last 16 without losing a set but most significant is the fact she’s 2-1 up on the head-to-head, having won the last two matches. The most recent was on the GreenSet courts in Australia – in Adeliade last year.
Drill deeper and the stats have been strongly in her favour across those three meetings with the stats showing she’s had a notable advantage when playing second-serve points.
Keys has won 71% of first-serve points in the series to Pegula’s 65% but the gap is much wider on second serve with 53% won to 40%.
In terms of total return points won, Keys has a big lead of 45% to 35%.
Keys will doubtless attack that second serve with her huge groundstrokes and while I’m well aware that she can spray the ball all over the place at times – I highlighted that in Saturday’s preview – one of the reasons she sunk our bet against Pliskova was that her winner count was higher than her unforced-errors tally.
History suggests that something similar here may well be enough for victory at 6/4.
Posted at 09:45 GMT on 25/01/26
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