The New Mexico State Aggies take on the Liberty Flames in Lynchburg, VA. Tip-off is set for 6 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Liberty is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -425. The total is set at 142.5 points.
Here’s my New Mexico State vs. Liberty prediction and college basketball picks for January 15, 2026.
My Pick: Liberty -8.5 (Play to -9.5)
My New Mexico State vs Liberty best bet is on the Flames to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Thursday, January 15
6 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network
| N. Mexico St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 142.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
New Mexico State is off to a somewhat rocky start in league play. The Aggies are 2-3, and two of their losses came on the road.
New Mexico State head coach Jason Hooten is known for his defensive coaching chops, as he had good defenses at Sam Houston and now in Las Cruces.
Unsurprisingly, the Aggies' defense is one of the best in C-USA. They'll need their defense — which holds opponents to 45% shooting from 2 (29th nationally) and 30% from 3 — to really lock in.
So, how are the Aggies outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency with those numbers? Well, they foul too much, ranking 346th in KenPom's FTA/FGA metric. Another issue is rebounding, as New Mexico State fails to secure a rebound 30% of the time.
In its two road league losses, New Mexico State surrendered 89 points to FIU and Missouri State. Both teams shot better than 40% deep, so it'll be pivotal to limit Liberty to below that mark from downtown.
The offensive end can be an adventure for New Mexico State. The ball tends to get stuck in the hands of Jemel Jones and Elijah Elliott, which disrupts offensive flow.
Jones is the engine for New Mexico State, leading the team with 15 points per game. He has a ton of skill, but he settles too often. Elliott is a bench gunner, averaging 9.4 points per game while shooting just 38% from the field.
The one thing the Aggies can do to offset the scoring issues is to dominate the offensive glass. The uber-athletic Julius Mims and 6-foot-11 Cyr Malonga tower over Liberty's diminutive lineup.
I'd expect them to stay active on the boards.
Liberty has rattled off seven straight wins, with five of them coming in C-USA play. The Flames won their last four conference games by eight-plus points.
Ritchie McKay's squad is all about ball and player movement and shooting 3s.
Liberty is 69th in KenPom's offensive efficiency, which is the best mark in the league by almost 50 spots.
The Flames deploy a methodical pace to hunt the best shot, sitting 332nd in adjusted tempo. They tend to find good looks from deep, connecting on 39% of their 3s, which ranks 18th nationally.
Zach Cleveland is the point forward for Liberty. He has some wildly impressive numbers, posting 11 points, seven rebounds and eight assists per game. He initiates at the top of the key or out of the post and dishes to the shooting trio of Brett Decker Jr., Kaden Metheny and Colin Porter.
All three of them shoot close 40% from deep, and Decker is at 50%.
He's the perfect big for Liberty, and he could put New Mexico State's bigs in a tough position.
Defense can be a struggle at times for Liberty. McKay runs a pack-line defense, which aims to keep teams out of the lane. That works for this squad since Liberty doesn't have a shot-blocker or length. The Flames are 147th in KenPom's defensive efficiency.
Where the length is an issue is on the boards. The Flames surrender offensive boards to their opponents at a 35% clip, and they also don't crash the offensive glass.
I'm laying the 8.5 points with Liberty. Nothing that New Mexico State has done in league play has me convinced that it can hang with a team like Liberty.
The Aggies' offense will likely put them in a hole that only offensive rebounding can get them out of.
The Flames don't play fast, but their shooting ability can help them bury teams.
My Pick: Liberty -8.5 (Play to -9.5)
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