While we have just one power-conference matchup on the board on Friday, there are three ranked teams in action.
We're not limited to those matchups, though, as there's plenty of betting value on the NCAAB odds board.
I'm diving in below with my college basketball picks for Friday, February 13.
Home-court advantage in the Ivy League isn’t the same thing as in other conferences.
With schools geographically located in a tight area, travel isn’t as taxing and road tilts are less of a whole to-do. Per KenPom, Ivy home teams have won just 46.9% of their games in league play this season — only the crazy AAC has a lower home win percentage.
Brown can keep this one tight on Friday against Harvard. The Bears are always a tough underdog with their athleticism and scrappy style of play, and they hung around with the Crimson in the first meeting between the two in a low-possession slog-fest.
In that first game, Brown won the rebounding and turnover battle — two key predictors for game success. The Bears, unfortunately, allowed Harvard to shoot 29 free throws, and the Crimson magically managed to hit 27 of them.
While Harvard is a great free throw shooting team and Brown fouls at the highest rate in the league, this game figures to not feature quite an extreme split from the stripe.
Defense will need to lead the way for Brown. The Bears have a truly awesome forward in Landon Lewis — who scored 30 against Harvard in the first game — but he has little help.
Forcing the sometimes-loose-with-the-ball Crimson guards into turnovers and limiting Harvard to just one shot every time down the floor are achievable goals.
On the other end, Brown just needs to take the air out of the rock, force a low-possession game and win loose ball battles.
It can do that enough to stay within three possessions.
Pick: Brown +8 (Play to +7)
Wisconsin hosts Sparty on Friday in a battle of two of the top teams in the Big Ten. Fascinatingly, both squads are coming off overtime wins against Illinois, a phenomenon I can only assume has happened once.
The Badgers own two of the best wins in the country this season (at Illinois and at Michigan), but Michigan State is still the far superior team in this matchup — and the Badgers have already shown they can drop games at the Kohl Center in losses to Purdue and USC.
There’s also a “rest advantage” in this game, as Wisconsin has played two overtime games in the past seven days, while the Spartans have had a week off.
Wisconsin can��t hurt Michigan State where it struggles the most: the turnover department. The Badgers lack the perimeter length and athleticism to force turnovers, an area in which Sparty ranks last on the offensive end.
The Badgers do have size up front and are strong rebounders, but Michigan State is arguably the best rebounding team in the country and still should have the edge.
Michigan State’s defense has been lockdown this season, ranking top-five nationally and No. 1 in the Big Ten, per KenPom. The Spartans’ ball-screen defense will be tested against one of the most prolific pick-and-roll offenses in the country, but Tom Izzo has mobile bigs who can extend to the arc and wall up in the paint on drives.
The kicker will be the play of Jeremy Fears Jr., perhaps the most impressive point guard in the country this season. He’s taken his game to another level and will be the best player on the floor on Friday in Madison.
Take the better team as a short favorite.
Pick: Michigan State -1 (Play to -3)
Oh, how fun it is to watch Saint Louis basketball. The Billikens are quickly becoming America’s darling and a legitimate threat to crash the Final Four.
They lead the country in both offensive and defensive effective field goal percentage and play one of the most aesthetically pleasing styles of basketball in the sport.
Then there’s Loyola Chicago, one of the most disappointing teams in college basketball, a preseason top-100 squad at KenPom that currently ranks No. 311.
Even a strong home-court edge at Gentile Arena can’t save the Ramblers from what’s to come in front of a crowd that no doubt will include a heavy Saint Louis presence.
Loyola won't be able to stop the Billikens from scoring. The Ramblers don’t put pressure on the ball and give up an extremely high rate of triples. Saint Louis’ gorgeous motion offense that revolves around cutting and passing should carve up the defense with little stress and light the nets on fire from deep.
On the other end, the Ramblers “boast” by far the A-10’s worst offense — bad news when going against the best defense the league has to offer.
While Saint Louis won’t take advantage of Loyola’s turnover woes, the Ramblers don’t have enough shooting to offset what has been an impenetrable Saint Louis paint and rim defense. Expect plenty of late clock heaves as the Ramblers struggle to find daylight.
The handicap on this one is simple: bet the very good team against very bad team.
Loyola has already lost four A-10 games by 20+ points and certainly could do it again on Friday.
Pick: Saint Louis -18.5 (Play to -20)
Source link
Please share by clicking this button!
Visit our site and see all other available articles!