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The Philadelphia Phillies seek a seventh straight series win when they play the rubber match of their three-game set with the visiting Cincinnati Reds this afternoon.

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Cincinnati, however, has been mighty comfortable as an underdog in this head-to-head, which is why my Reds vs Phillies predictions and free MLB picks are siding with the road team on Wednesday, May 20.

Who will win Reds vs Phillies today: Reds moneyline (+127)

In his most recent outing, Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola lasted just 3 2/3 innings against the Pirates, surrendering six runs on six hits, including two homers. It was the third time in five starts he’s allowed at least five earned.

His stuff simply isn’t playing anymore, and his barrel and hard-hit rates rank in the 31st and 37th percentiles, respectively.

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Meanwhile, Cincinnati Reds starter Andrew Abbott has allowed one earned run in his last three starts, rocking a microscopic 0.54 ERA in May.

Coupled with the Reds’ offense in the last two weeks (Top 8 in runs, average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS) and a 3-1 record against the Phillies as an underdog in the last four, it’s their series to take, and I’ll take this plus-money pricetag against a scuffling Nola any chance I get.

COVERS INTEL:

Nathaniel Lowe sat out Tuesday’s win, but the DH will surely be in the lineup against Nola, whom he’s owned in a small sample, going 4-for-7 with a home run.

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Reds vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (+104)

The last seven meetings between the Reds and Phillies have produced an Under record of 6-0-1, with only one matchup touching a combined nine runs.

The Phillies have been an Under machine, going 8-1-0 in their last nine overall. They rank just 20th in scoring, and neither team has lit the world on fire, boasting identical below-average wRC+ ratings of 93 (tied for 21st in MLB).

With Abbott in a groove and Nola struggling, it’s shaping up for the Reds to carry this to victory, but falling Under the 8.5-run line.

Eric Rosales’ 2026 Transparency Record

• ML/RL bets: 7-6, +0.72 units

• Over/Under bets: 10-2, +7.74 units

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Reds vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Reds +127 | Phillies -133

• Run line: Reds +1.5 (-156) | Phillies -1.5 (+150)

• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+104) | Under 8.5 (-108)

Reds vs Phillies trend

Cincinnati has held Philadelphia to one run or less in three of the last four matchups. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Phillies.

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