After the U.S. Supreme Court weakened the Voting Rights Act’s protection of majority-minority districts, Missouri Republicans could have joined Southern states in dismantling the heavily Democratic and historically African American 1st Congressional District.

They didn’t. But that doesn’t mean the St. Louis- and St. Louis County-based 1st District is safe beyond 2027, when Republicans will still have a path in the Missouri General Assembly to split up a district that’s either had a plurality or majority of African Americans for decades.

Backers of the move include GOP elected officials who, until recently, were content with letting the 1st District keep its demographic composition since it helped Republicans win other seats in Congress.

“That’s the definition of racism … drawing districts based on the color of one’s skin,” said Secretary of State Denny Hoskins. “We don’t want that in Missouri.”

Not everyone says the demise of the current 1st District is inevitable.

Some contend pressure could lessen if President Donald Trump’s popularity continues to spiral. And even some Republicans are cautious about placing largely Democratic parts of the St. Louis region into safe GOP districts.

Still, Black lawmakers from St. Louis are on guard, especially after Republicans targeted Democratic Congressman Emanuel Cleaver of Kansas City at the behest of Trump.

”I think they’ll try,” said state Rep. Marty Murray, D-St. Louis. “I think the phone calls will come in to try to redistrict it.”

A decades-long arrangement 

The sudden GOP interest in going after the 1st District is notable, since Missouri Republicans are largely responsible for creating the seat in 1967.

Missouri had to redraw its congressional lines in the 1960s after a series of Supreme Court cases requiring congressional seats to be as equal in population as possible. According to his book “Bill Clay: A Political Voice at the Grassroots,” former Congressman William Clay Sr. wrote that a majority African American 1st District came about thanks to a state legislative coalition that included 57 Republicans, 13 Black legislators and nine white rural Democrats. The arrangement, he wrote, allowed for the creation of a southeast Missouri-based district, GOP-leaning seats in suburban St. Louis and a Black-majority district in St. Louis.

While the Voting Rights Act, until this year, prevented the General Assembly from significantly reducing the population of the 1st District – lawmakers could have likely dropped the percentage of Black voters to around 25% or 30% without running afoul of that law. That never happened, primarily because Republicans and Black Democrats chose to honor the alliance they forged in the 1960s.

For Black Democrats, the deal meant that an African American would likely be elected in the 1st District while Republicans benefited from the nearby 2nd and 3rd Congressional Districts leaning toward the GOP.

The Republican-Black Democratic alliance began to fracture during the GOP push to eliminate Cleaver’s Kansas City-based 5th District.

In a legal filing over whether lawmakers could pursue a redrawn congressional map in the middle of the decade, Missouri Solicitor General Louis Capozzi contended that the 1st District lawmakers created in 2022 would likely be declared an unconstitutional racial gerrymander if plaintiffs were successful in a case known as Louisiana v. Calais. That challenged that state’s congressional map and broke down long-standing barriers around state lawmakers significantly reducing minority populations of seats.

After the Louisiana v. Calais decision in April, GOP officials from Missouri and elsewhere derided majority-minority districts as “racist” – including statewide political figures like Hoskins and U.S. Sen. Eric Schmitt, R-Missouri.

“Redistricting is up to the state legislature, but this SCOTUS decision ensures that should MO1 be redrawn, it will not be done so based on race,” said Schmitt spokeswoman Rachel Dumke.

State Sen. Rick Brattin, R-Harrisonville, said he’s “all for getting as many seats as we possibly can to save America.” But he then asked: “Do we see the political will or want and desire next year? I don’t know.”

“I don’t necessarily see it, unless we see a [Democratic] takeover and all we see are impeachments and all we see are a bunch of crazy radical ideas,” Brattin said. “Then, yeah, absolutely, we need to accelerate that. But that’s to be determined.”

Brian Munoz

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St. Louis Public Radio

A risky gamble?

One of the reasons for Brattin’s hesitation is that even some Republicans worry that placing portions of heavily Democratic St. Louis and St. Louis County into seats that are either largely rural or partially suburban could backfire.

They include Eddie Greim, a Kansas City-based attorney who successfully argued the Louisiana v. Calais case that sparked the recent redistricting frenzy around the South.

“There’s a practical point, which is maybe trying to make that [district] more Republican will just endanger the three neighboring districts,” Greim said. “And it just may not make sense.”

Some of the new maps drawn after the Louisiana v. Calais ruling are based on election results in the 2020s when Republicans were arguably at their peak performance in rural parts of the country. If GOP candidates become less popular in rural areas, especially as Trump fades from the political scene, Democrats could potentially capture multiple House seats.

State Rep. Steve Butz, D-St. Louis, said Trump is historically unpopular thanks to backlash from the Iran war and his erratic public behavior. Butz said Republicans would be foolish to follow his marching orders again.

“We do enough fighting about the maps and gerrymandering once every 10 years,” Butz said. “To say this could conceivably happen every two or every four years. I hope that no one has the stomach for that. Republicans, independents and Democrats, that’s not good for anyone, specifically for the 1st Congressional District.”

Others say Missouri Republicans could be waiting to see how their 2025 map fares in what could be a wave Democratic election. If those lines are in effect and Cleaver still manages to win in a much more GOP-leaning seat, it could dissuade efforts after 2026 to redraw the 1st District.

“And I’m hoping that Missouri stands up and lets their voices be heard and understand that representation for African Americans is just as important as any other representation,” said state Sen. Karla May, D-St. Louis.

More than politics

For Black Democrats like May, the preservation of the 1st District is about more than just partisan politics.

Having a Black person represent St. Louis, they point out, allows for a historically marginalized community to have a seat at the table of power. It also provides access to money and political organizational resources that help elect Black candidates in St. Louis and St. Louis County.

“All Americans should have a voice,” May said. “And to roll back years and history of civil rights like it never existed, like it never took place? It amazes me how voters are even agreeing with this type of thing.”

State Sen. Brian Williams, D-St. Louis County, said African American political leaders need to be on guard. He noted that Missouri Republicans still targeted the 5th District last year, even though GOP officials had similar fears that chopping up Kansas City would backfire and that Cleaver forged significant relationships with GOP leaders like Congressman Sam Graves of Tarkio.

“I don’t put anything past this administration to influence the legislatures throughout the country,” Williams said. “And I think this summer, we need to be just as engaged – encouraging folks to register to vote, and most importantly, talk about the importance of protecting voting rights as well as representation in our city and beyond.”