With Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev headlining a draw that has lost several big names to withdrawal, the high-altitude ATP Madrid Open should be more open than usual this week even if the world #1 Sinner is a heavy favourite. The first round is filled with intriguing matchups and as always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for every match on the schedule on day two. But who will advance?
ATP Madrid Day 2 Predictions
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Marton Fucsovics
Head-to-head: Fucsovics 1–0 Carreno Busta
Pablo Carreno Busta is a hometown crowd favourite at this event, but his recent record here makes for uncomfortable reading, he has lost his last six opening-round matches in Madrid. The Spaniard is still piecing himself back together after his elbow injury wiped out most of 2023, and while he returned to the top 100 this season, his clay form has been inconsistent.
He retired mid-match in Barcelona qualifying last week, which raises real questions about his fitness heading in. Marton Fucsovics comes in with his own struggles, he lost in the opening round at Monte Carlo to Tabilo but at least he appears to be physically sound. Their only previous meeting went to the Hungarian, and with Carreno Busta carrying an injury cloud and a poor record here specifically, Fucsovics is the safer pick to advance.
Prediction: Fucsovics in 3
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Reilly Opelka
Head-to-head: Opelka 1–0 Budkov Kjaer
Opelka’s game is built entirely around his enormous serve and ability to end points quickly, he is a genuine handful on hard courts and grass. Clay is a different story. His career ATP clay record sits at 16–23, and over the last 52 weeks it has been an even more worrying 2–5. Madrid’s altitude does quicken the surface slightly, which helps Opelka more than a slower clay would, but it is still not his playground. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer came through qualifying here, beating Moez Echargui in straight sets with a clean, aggressive display. The Norwegian qualifier is a comfortable clay mover who can extend rallies and make life difficult for a player who hates grind. Opelka’s serve will win him free points, but Budkov Kjaer should be able to work the longer exchanges in his favour.
Prediction: Budkov Kjaer in 3
Alexei Popyrin vs Martin Damm
Head-to-head: first meeting
Alexei Popyrin arrives in Madrid in poor overall form — his 2026 season has been a struggle, with a 4–10 record before the clay swing, and he was beaten comfortably by Casper Ruud at Monte Carlo in his clay-court opener. His game is built for faster surfaces where he can hit through opponents, and the slow grind of clay has consistently exposed his limitations even if his powerful forehand is a weapon to be reckoned with. Martin Damm, on the other hand, is a 22-year-old qualifier riding genuine momentum.
He made a semifinal run in Montpellier earlier this season and his all-round game has continued to develop. His clay stats at Challenger level are modest, but he navigated qualifying here without dropping a set and his confident ball-striking could trouble a Popyrin who is not moving or believing particularly well right now.
Prediction: Damm in 3
Gael Monfils vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Head-to-head: first meeting
Gael Monfils is in his farewell season, which adds an emotional dimension to what could be his final match at the Caja Mágica. The Frenchman has been coming to Madrid for 15 years and twice reached the quarter-finals, but that was a long time ago. His record here has barely risen above average since 2010, and his six wins from the last 52 weeks tell you where he is in his career at 39.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli, meanwhile, is in strong clay form. Six of his eight wins in 2026 have come on the dirt, and he backed that up with a semi-final run in Marrakech and a last-16 showing in Barcelona last week. He is the more active and competitive player on this surface right now, and despite the sentimental pull of the occasion, the Argentine’s clay pedigree in 2026 makes him the clear pick to move through.
Prediction: Ugo Carabelli in 3
Main photo credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
