The BP (LSE: BP) share price has given investors comfort at a tricky time. While many FTSE 100 stocks have been knocked by Iran war volatility, it’s a clear and obvious beneficiary. But for how much longer?

There have been ups and downs in recent weeks, depending on the prospects for peace. Yet overall, BP shares have done well. They’re up 16% in the last three months, and a stunning 53% over one year. Dividends are on top. Long-term BP investors might also say that it’s about time too.

Despite that strong run, the stock trades at roughly the same level as it did at the start of the millennium. It’s had a bumpy 25 years, plunging with the rest of the market after the 2001 dotcom crash, and taking further hits from the financial crisis in 2007, the Deepwater Horizon tragedy in 2010, and Covid lockdowns in 2020.

So how is the FTSE 100 stock doing today?

The Ukraine war drove up the oil price but also forced BP to take a massive £25bn hit on its stake in Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft. The group also battled with boardroom issues, which saw the last two CEOs, Bernard Looney and Murray Auchincloss, depart suddenly. It’s also struggled to respond to climate change pressures.

Q1 results (28 April) revealed a strong start to 2026, with quarterly revenue up £5.3bn to £52.3bn. BP’s trading division struck black gold, as customers raced to secure energy supplies. However, investors can’t assume this will continue. So much depends on what happens to Iran and the oil price.

BP’s bumper profits also attracted fresh attention from the Treasury. The current ‘windfall’ charge already accounts for around a third of the total taxes it pays to the UK government. Now Chancellor Rachel Reeves has scrapped a tax rule allowing oil and gas companies to offset UK profits against overseas losses, to fund a £1.8bn cost-of-living support package.

Is the oil giant worth considering?

Today (25 May), there’s another issue to consider following reports that the US has struck a peace deal that would see Iran give up uranium and open the Strait of Hormuz. If the market wasn’t closed for a Bank Holiday, I’d imagine the FTSE 100 would be soaring, and BP shares would be heading the other way. Although you never know with these things.

You never know with Donald Trump’s peace deals either. This one could stall, at which point, BP shares might bounce.

Energy tends to be a cyclical sector. I’d much rather buy a stock like BP at the bottom than the top. That’s why I added it to my SIPP some 18 months ago, when it was firmly out of favour. I now plan to hold throughout the cycle, reinvesting every dividend I receive.

Despite its recent success, the forward price-to-earnings ratio is a modest 8.2. Plus there’s some meaty income, with a 4.6% forecast yield. Share buybacks remain on hold, sadly. I’m wary of buying today. Yet long-term investors might still consider buying if a dip happens. We might get one very soon.

Should you invest £5,000 in Bp P.l.c. right now?

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Harvey Jones owns shares in BP. 

The post Is the great BP share price party about to come to a crashing halt?  appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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