Let’s get the obvious out of the way: The Los Angeles Lakers should win their Western Conference quarterfinals series with the Houston Rockets at some point. That’s what happens when a team leads 3-0 in a best-of-seven series.

The Lakers won’t talk about it, but it is already someone’s job to prepare the team for an upcoming semifinals series against the reigning, defending, undisputed champion and Western Conference top seed, the Oklahoma City Thunder. Obviously, the Lakers have to eliminate the Rockets first.

Sunday’s Game 4 was a missed opportunity for the Lakers to sweep Houston. Notably, Game 4 was the only game of the first five of the series to be played with no more than one day’s rest prior. The Rockets have played incrementally better in each game this series, going from a basic blowout in Game 1 to clutch time in Game 2 to leading with roughly 30 seconds to go in Game 3. They’ll rue the night they blew Game 3 forever; this series, to many, should be tied at 2-2.

Blowouts provide great load management. And, perhaps, the Lakers needed a breather. Houston led by the end of a quarter for the first time this series in Game 4, then took its first double-digit lead of the series, and then its first 20-point lead for the series. The strong performance by the Rockets opened the door for the Thunder to get a rest as All-Star Jalen Williams continues to nurse a left hamstring strain. Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander let it be known that he spent the quarterfinals series against the Phoenix Suns watching the Rockets-Lakers series, as well.

“They’re obviously going to be a really good team,” Gilgeous-Alexander said of whichever team makes it out of the Rockets-Lakers series.
”You don’t make it to the semifinals of the Western Conference playoffs if you’re not. It’ll either be the Lakers or Houston. They each pose their challenges. Houston is like more defensive, and the Lakers are more offensive. … We won’t take them lightly, either.”

So why should the Lakers look at the Rockets as preparation for the Thunder? Outside of the Thunder obliterating the Lakers in a 4-0 regular-season sweep, you can start with the turnovers from Sunday’s Game 4. The Rockets outscored the Lakers 30-19 in points off turnovers, with the Lakers committing 24 turnovers overall — an average of one giveaway every two minutes! But the Rockets aren’t exactly a heavy pressure team; Houston finished 21st in opponent turnover percentage this season and 14th in steals per game (8.5). Compare that to a Thunder team that finished second in opponent turnover percentage and third in steals per game (9.7).

In Game 4, the Rockets had 17 steals, the most by a Lakers opponent all season. The Lakers have struggled to take care of the basketball. LeBron James had eight turnovers in both games in Houston after having only five in the first two games in Los Angeles. Houston doesn’t want a prone defender on an island with James. In the fourth quarter, Rockets guard Aaron Holiday was alone with James until Jabari Smith Jr. came to double-team. James didn’t manipulate Rockets All-Star Alperen Şengün in the middle of Houston’s coverage, and instead of getting Luke Kennard an opportunity at a corner 3, James tried to force a pass inside to reserve big Jarred Vanderbilt.

Not a bad look, but Smith got his hands up and stole the pass. Lakers head coach JJ Redick waived the white flag two minutes later.

About midway through the third quarter of Game 4, James once again was guarded by an attackable defender, this time Şengün. Once again, Smith came over to help, creating a theoretical advantage. James chose to find Deandre Ayton with a high pass, with only Rockets small forward Tari Eason in the paint and on Ayton’s back.

But the pass from James was high, and Eason was able to dislodge the ball from Ayton for one of his five steals. Four seconds later, Şengün scored through a Marcus Smart foul to put the Rockets up 20; Houston maintained a lead of at least 17 points for the remainder of the game.

James wasn’t just demonstrating bad passing. He put himself in disadvantageous positions, which put the Lakers in trouble. Here’s a James/Ayton pick-and-roll from the second quarter. Ayton reset the screen multiple times, with the Rockets’ Josh Okogie fighting to stay in front of James. Once James went away from Ayton’s screen, Şengün was able to drop into the paint, with Smith providing nail help off Smart.

Both corners were filled with lethal shooters, as Kennard occupied Amen Thompson on the weak side while Rui Hachimura occupied Reed Sheppard on the near side.

Where James erred was when he decided to mash Okogie with an impromptu post-up. Sheppard might be a defensive liability with his size and inexperience, but he is a steals savant. Once James turned his back, Sheppard immediately pursued a steal. Hachimura and Lakers assistant Nate McMillan tried to warn James, to no avail: Sheppard had a steal and a fast-break bucket.

The Lakers had been solid this series when it came to first-quarter offense, scoring at least 33 points in the first three quarters and establishing early leads. In Game 4, the Lakers were held to 21 first-quarter points while having more turnovers (eight) than buckets (7-of-17 shooting), including this shot-clock violation that saw Kennard unable to beat Eason with James off the floor.

Ayton was the beneficiary of increased opportunity in Game 4, scoring 19 points on 9-of-12 shooting before his third-quarter ejection. But Ayton has nearly twice as many turnovers as assists in this series, and touches for him mean even fewer 3s for a Lakers team that struggles to generate a decent volume of attempts with Luka Dončić (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique) out of the lineup.

Reaves could be part of the solution as a player who will take charges and get to the free-throw line while being able to credibly create shots. The Lakers upgraded Reaves to questionable for the previous two games before ruling him out, so it could be a similar situation in Game 5. But the Rockets might also want to see Reaves, as he gives their offense another attackable defender, and he doesn’t always take care of the ball. The Lakers could hold Reaves out and have him ready for the Thunder series, instead of dealing with the potential rust.

The Lakers now have a practice day and a home game with two days of rest. If they don’t take better care of the basketball and end this series Wednesday, they will have squandered another opportunity, with the Rockets hosting Game 6 on Friday.