On paper, the Yankees had a real pitching advantage in this series, tossing Cam Schlittler and Gerrit Cole in the first two games of the series before drawing one of Cleveland’s worst performing starters on Thursday.

But the thing about paper is that… It’s paper. The Guardians have put together two impressive offensive performances against two aces and kept the Yankees at bay to win the series at Yankee Stadium, a rarity. From 2022-25 (including playoffs), Cleveland was just 4-13 in the Bronx, but now has a chance to sweep in a Thursday matinee.

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Carlos Rodón will look to help salvage the final game of this series, making his fifth start. It’s been a mixed bag for the All-Star left-hander, as he’s gritted his way through back-to-back strong starts after two poor ones to start the year, pitching to a 3.32 ERA (127 ERA+) and 3.89 FIP in 19 innings. He’s struggled with command, often falling behind in counts and already issuing 13 free passes through four starts, but he’s also been able to get outs despite not having his best strikeout stuff or velocity over the last two weeks. Rodón, if you remember, had the best postseason outing of his career in Game 1 of the 2024 ALCS at Yankee Stadium against this team.

The Guardians will counter with 26-year-old Slade Cecconi, who’s in his third year of being a full-time MLB starter. He was solid, if unremarkable, for Cleveland last year, but has struggled to the tune of a 5.25 ERA (79 ERA+) and 4.96 FIP in 61.2 innings across 12 starts. 364 days ago was his only previous start against the Yankees, where he allowed two runs in five innings, taking the loss.

He doesn’t allow too much hard contact and keeps the ball on the ground, but is well below average in strikeout, whiff, and chase rates, while being mediocre in keeping the ball off the barrel. He’s gotten unlucky in terms of batted ball outcomes, but not by much. Cecconi has a six-pitch mix, but throws some variation of fastball 76 percent of the time, while mixing in a curveball, sweeper, and changeup.

Aaron Judge is still out of the lineup as he gets more imaging on his rib injury, so it’s a similar top of the order with Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Paul Goldschmidt, and Cody Bellinger. The top seven is identical, with only JC Escarra replacing Austin Wells and Max Schuemann replacing Anthony Volpe, playing right field as Caballero takes over at shortstop.

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2024 ALCS Game 3 hero David Fry is leading off for the Guardians in front of José Ramirez, Rhys Hoskins, Travis Bazzana, and Angel Martínez. Stuart Fairchild slides in at sixth in front of Steven Kwan, while Austin Hedges gets his first start of the season, batting eighth. Brayan Rocchio rounds it out.

How to watch

Location: Yankee Stadium — The Bronx, NY

First pitch: 1:35 pm ET

TV broadcast: YES, Guardians.TV

Radio broadcast: WFAN 660/101.9 FM, WADO 1280 (NYY), WTAM 1100, Guardians Radio Network (CLE)

Online stream: MLB.tv (out-of-market only)

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