4Warn Weather – You might have seen headlines circulating about an expected El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean.

It’s true that El Niño is likely to ramp up as we head into the summer, but what does that actually mean? And, more importantly, how could it affect the weather in Metro Detroit heading into the summer?

El Niño refers to the warm phase of a fluctuating climate pattern along the equator in the tropical Pacific Ocean. More specifically, it describes sea surface temperature anomalies along the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The last El Niño occurred during the winter of 2023-24. These fluctuating sea surface temperatures can have a major influence on weather patterns around the globe, including across the United States.

During an El Niño pattern, the southern United States tends to be wetter and sometimes cooler than average. Meanwhile, parts of the Midwest, including Michigan, are more often drier and warmer than average.

Some headlines have already begun teasing the possibility of a “Super El Niño.”

That term refers to sea surface temperature anomalies in the monitored El Niño region exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Since 1950, that has happened only three times, most recently during the 2015-16 event.

Right now, ocean temperatures are only beginning to trend above average. The Climate Prediction Center expects El Niño to develop in the coming months.

While forecasters say it’s likely El Niño conditions will develop, the exact strength of the event remains less certain. The likelihood of a very strong, or “super El Niño”, comes in around 37% as we get into the early part of winter.

In general, strong El Niño events don’t guarantee stronger impacts; rather, they just make certain impacts more likely.

As global temperatures continue to rise, emerging research suggests climate change is amplifying the strength of El Niño and La Niña swings by about 10%. The expected El Niño could push 2026, and even more likely 2027, to a near record category in terms of average global temperature.

So what does this mean for Metro Detroit?

Since there is a high certainty of an El Niño developing, then our forecast would look for the potential of warmer than average temperatures, as well as drier than average temperatures. This does not preclude us from getting frontal boundaries through the region that bring chances for showers and thunderstorms, but overall, the summer would trend drier and warmer than average.