In a Gameweek where Manchester City are one of only TWO clubs to play twice, the captaincy decision for millions of managers in Fantasy Premier League comes down to this: are you looking to defend your mini-league lead or do you need to take risks to gain ground on your rivals with just three rounds of fixtures remaining?

As the most-owned player in Fantasy, there is no doubt that Erling Haaland (£14.7m) is set to be the runaway captain favourite for Man City’s two home matches in Double Gameweek 36 (DGW36) against Brentford and Crystal Palace.

And some of his 62 per cent backers will also be playing their Triple Captain chip on the Norwegian, who has returned to top form by scoring in three successive matches for the first time since Gameweeks 6-8.

But you only need to look back to Man City’s recent Double Gameweek 33 (DGW33) to show why Haaland has strong competition from his team-mates.

Indeed, both Nico O’Reilly (£5.2m) and Rayan Cherki (£6.6m) matched the 13 points of Haaland across those contests against Arsenal and Burnley.

 

Who are Man City’s form players?

An assessment of Man City’s last four matches – since they moved back to a lone forward formation – shows that Haaland has been outscored by five of his team-mates in Fantasy.

Jeremy Doku (£6.4m) leads the way on 31 points, scoring three goals and supplying an assist.

Cherki and O’Reilly, meanwhile, boast identical records – they have both amassed 28 points, producing four returns and blanking only once.

Whereas Cherki’s returns consist of one goal and three assists, O’Reilly’s listing as a defender in Fantasy is crucial here – he combined a goal and an assist with two clean sheets to mirror his team-mate’s output.

Haaland has also blanked only once, with his return to form boosted by the 4-2-3-1 system.

Man City’s top-scoring players, last four matches
Player Pts Returns Blanks/Starts
Doku 31 4 1/4
Cherki, O’Reilly 28 4 1/4
Guehi 27 4 1/4
Khusanov 24 2 0/4
Haaland 22 3 1/4

Scroll across on mobile to see the full table

Who’s had the most attacking potential?

A delve into the underlying data indicates that Haaland is very much the focal point of Man City’s attack once again.

The Norwegian has had six big chances, which are situations where a player is expected to score – that’s at least four more than any team-mate in Man City’s last four matches.

Cherki runs the forward the closest in the analysis thanks to his major all-round threat.

The midfielder has had two big chances of his own and created three more of them, which means he has been involved in five big chances – just one less than Haaland.

Cherki’s 13 shots in the box catch the eye, with that total more than double the five of winger Doku.

O’Reilly again impresses for a Fantasy defender, ranking third for big-chance involvement and shots in the box.

Attacking potential, last four matches
Player Big-chance inv. Big chances BCC* Shots in box
Haaland 6 6 0 17
Cherki 5 2 3 13
O’Reilly 3 2 1 7
Doku 2 1 1 5

*Scroll across on mobile to see the full table. BCC = Big chances created

What about their output in Man Cit’s home matches?

A look at their displays over home matches this season highlights the relentless consistency of O’Reilly due to his potential for points at both ends of the pitch.

He’s blanked just twice in 13 starts at the Etihad Stadium and has averaged 7.6 points per start (pps) in home matches this season, more than the 7.2pps of Haaland.

The England star has combined four goals and four assists with seven clean sheets, which means he’s produced 15 returns at the Etihad Stadium.

Haaland, meanwhile, has scored 14 goals and supplied three assists in home matches and has been involved in 47 per cent of their goals at the Etihad.

Cherki‘s 39 per cent involvement isn’t too far off Haaland here but, similarly to the forward, his consistency is some way behind O’Reilly.

Comparison in home matches, 25/26
  O’Reilly Haaland Cherki
Pts per start 7.6 7.2 5.6
Returns 15 17 7
Blanks/Starts 2/13 5/15 4/9
Goal inv. 24% 47% 39%

Scroll across on mobile to see the full table

So, who’s the best captain?

If you’re defending a strong advantage in your mini-league, Haaland offers an easy solution.

He’ll be the most-selected captain for DGW36 and the underlying numbers show there’s a huge risk in going against him.

Both O’Reilly and Cherki also look well-placed for bumper hauls and the Frenchman certainly has the edge on attacking potential alone.

But as the seasonal numbers show, O’Reilly’s ability to also earn four points for a clean sheet – the same as Haaland gets for scoring a goal – is also a big factor here.

If you really need to go against the Norwegian, then O’Reilly’s all-round output makes him the one to back. 



Source link