00:00 Speaker A

Robin Hood shares sliding here as fourth quarter revenue missed expectations. Join me now is Christian Bolu, senior analyst at autonomous research. Christian, it’s good to see you. So Robin Hood reports we’re down right now, nearly 8% in the after hours. Christian, what what do you make of the print? Your first thoughts?

00:19 Christian Bolu

Yeah, uh uh afternoon and uh evening. thanks. good to good to see you. Um, I would say look, an expensive stock and, you know, a top line miss is is not helpful at all. Um, also there was some deceleration in some key metrics. Um things like the net deposit growth uh decelerated in in in the fourth quarter and looks to have continued to decelerate in in in January. So I I do think um the reaction uh might be warranted here just given high expectations and um I would say obviously a very expensive stock. That being said, the commentary from the management team is pretty constructive in terms of um the the the pipe the pipeline for 2026 in terms of uh new business growth and actually transaction volumes have been very strong um in January as well. So the outlook here is actually pretty decent.

01:09 Speaker A

Let me ask you question, you know, heading into this print, the stock was already, you know, it was off about 40% from that all-time high in October and a a big question, you know this of course for for for investors right now is you’re trying to gauge how this company is going to navigate Christian this crypto winner, right? It’s route in Bitcoin. You know this company backwards and forwards. As an analyst, how do you think about that? What what is it going to mean Christian for Robin Hood’s trading volumes, for E, how do you model it?

01:36 Christian Bolu

Yeah, so, uh, crypto has fallen as a percent of revenues. Um, it it’s come down from north of 20 and over time, we think it will be near a 10% of the business. Um, if you run through what a crypto winter would look like, so if you look at uh where trading volumes traffed in in 2022, 2023, it would imply something like a 50% haircuts to current trading volumes. Uh if you run that through the P&L, it’s only about a 10% hit to to Robin Hood. So, um Robin Hood’s E. So, um, you know, not not great, um um but um but completely manageable. In fact, over time, we think we think things like event, event contracts and prediction markets will be a bigger part of the business or um and that than crypto. and obviously the actual biggest business, which is options trading continues to do extremely well with um really strong volumes or record volumes um to start 2026.