The following five statistics are true after two games in the Kings/Avalanche series.

– The Kings have held the highest-scoring team in the NHL to four goals across two games, in their own building. Colorado scored 298 goals this season, the most in the league.
– The Rocket Richard Trophy Winner, Nathan MacKinnon, has not scored in either game and has one assist in total. MacKinnon scored the most goals of any player during the regular season with 53.
– Cale Makar, who ranked third in points among defensemen and Martin Necas, one of eight players in the NHL with 100+ points, have combined for zero goals and one point in two games.
– The only player in the series with multiple goals is Kings forward Artemi Panarin, who has scored on the power play in both games. The Kings have won the special teams battle in both games, scoring on the man advantage in Game 1 and Game 2, while posting a 7-of-7 performance on the penalty kill, cumulatively across the two matchups.
– Anton Forsberg has turned in two exceptional starts, with a .941 save percentage and a 1.90 goals-against average. He has saved more than three goals above expected, per SportLOGIQ, one of just four goaltenders in the playoffs to exceed that number through two games.

If you had told me before the series that all five of those things would happen in Games 1 and 2, I’d have been pretty happy. Would’ve assumed the Kings were coming back to Los Angeles with at least a split……if not, somehow, a 2-0 series lead? That’s a lot of things going exactly as the Kings would have drawn them up. The Kings have gotten so many things to go their way and yet, they trail this series 2-0, after a pair of one-goal defeats.

So, I suppose it’s time to look at why the truth isn’t always the truth, or maybe more fairly, why the truth doesn’t always result in wins. Mostly, in this case, because statistics don’t play the game and because the ones above don’t tell the full story.

Yes, the Kings have only allowed four goals across two games. But they’ve also only scored two goals. Colorado being the NHL’s most productive team offensively gets most of the headlines, typically overshadowing their 203 goals against, which was also the best clip in the NHL. The Kings have not scored a 5-on-5 goal in two games, despite what has felt like enough chances to do so. Some of that goes to Colorado and Scott Wedgewood in net, some of that falls on the Kings for not doing more to be more productive.

While MacKinnon hasn’t scored yet, he is a +2. As is Necas. As is Makar. The Kings have frankly done a really good job of containing those players thus far in the series but despite it, those players are still winning their shifts overall, with more goals for than against. It’s a part of the game you take if you are Los Angeles. Those are three of the NHL’s top offensive players and they’ve got two points combined in two games. You’d think that’s a win. But the Avalanche have gotten goals from their depth players and when you don’t score at all 5-on-5 in more than 120 minutes, depth scoring has proven to be enough.

Panarin has delivered in big moments. He gave the team life with a late power-play goal in Game 1 and it felt as if his power-play goal in Game 2 might’ve just been enough to hold on. The Kings needed that kind of player on the power play and they’ve found him in Panarin. Problem is, he’s the only guy with a goal. No one else for the Kings has scored. Only three forwards – Trevor Moore, Alex Laferriere and Quinton Byfield – have a point in the series thus far. The Kings have had chances, including Panarin in Game 1, to get more than they’ve gotten. Byfield had a penalty shot last night. Laferriere a terrific look on the power play in Game 2. Moore has been the team’s most dangerous forward, with eight scoring chances 5-on-5, one shy of the league lead. But, while Panarin burying twice is terrific, he can’t have two more than the rest of the team put together.

On Forsberg, it’s a real shame. He’s battled so hard and his play has deserved his first career playoff win. Forsberg has been the guy the Kings have needed him to be in this series and his play, especially in key moments, has helped keep each game within a single goal in either direction. There’s not really much you can pin on him here. Two goals against in each game is good. It’s just one more than his counterpart, Scott Wedgewood.

So where does it leave the Kings?

We’ve got all the stats in the world to show how competitive the Kings have been in these games, which more than supports the eye test, but this is the Stanley Cup Playoffs. There are two statistics that count – wins and losses. The Kings have zero in one column and two in the next. They had two really, really good opportunities to steal a game in Denver, if not two, and yet they come home empty handed.

I did not cover the team in 2018 but this feels similar to the series with Vegas in some ways. Vegas, coming in, did not have the pedigree that this Colorado team does, nor were the Kings a heavy underdog but the series was extremely low scoring and extremely tight checking, with excellent goaltending on both sides. We’ve gotten all those things through two games here as well. In that series, the Kings gave up seven total goals and got swept. People still bring that series up to me from time to time as the closest sweep they’ve ever seen. Maybe hold off on hanging the banner. Through two games, the similarities are present. Heading home, the Kings have the chance to change the ending by punching back on home ice.

The challenge remains huge and frankly, we’re having the same conversation today as we did between Games 1 and 2. The Kings have to continue to do the things they’ve been doing but they need to score more goals. They’ve lost 2-1 and 2-1. They don’t need to score seven in Game 3 to win. But more likely than not, they can’t score one. Someone not named Artemi needs to step up and deliver. Actually, I take that back. Needs to be someones, not someone.

Here’s one more stat for you.

Per Natural Stat Trick, in Games 1and 2 of last season’s playoffs, the Kings had 20 high-danger chances and scored 12 goals.

In Game 1 and 2 of this season’s playoffs, the Kings have 20 high-danger chances and have scored two goals.

There’s no doubting that the Kings have been outchanced in total over the two games, but keeping Colorado off the scoreboard has not been the problem thus far. It’s getting the goals to go. The Kings were incredibly opportunistic in last season’s playoffs, leading to a pair of victories, with six goals in each contest.

Heading home, the Kings will have to find that element of their game in order to have a shot. The Kings ended their season with a six-game point streak at Crypto.com Arena, including five victories. It was the only stretch of sustained success in Los Angeles this season. With a pivotal Game 3 on the docket on Thursday, it’ll have to keep rolling, with more offense than we’ve seen just far.

If the statistics above continue to remain true, the Kings will once again have a good chance to win that game. As D.J. Smith said in yesterday’s post-game press conference, the Kings had every opportunity to win Game 2. They can’t continue to pass them by, as the series shifts to California.