Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki Odds

Check out the Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki prediction for UFC 328 on Saturday, May 9, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

A clash of styles will take place in the lightweight division on the UFC 328 prelims as Grant Dawson will try to ground the highly entertaining Mateusz Rebecki. It is difficult to imagine Rebecki being involved in a boring fight at this point, but Dawson will have no choice but to try and drag his opponent to the mat, as it is the only path he can take to avoid the danger that has limited his climb up the UFC ranks. I expect Dawson to pay off his favorite price tag this time around in a fight that should go the distance.

Here’s my Dawson vs. Rebecki pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Rebecki’s last four fights have been must-see scraps that have lived on the border between fight of the night and fight of the year  status. Rebecki is well-rounded and aggressive, seemingly never out of a fight and highly durable. He is not a large man for the weight class, but he possesses plenty of strength to hold up against a wide variety of opponents. His grappling is well above average in the lightweight division, and he has never been submitted as a professional.

Rebecki has been on the wrong end of a couple of very close decisions as of late; thus, I expect his aggressive nature to be taken to another level as he looks to avoid another potentially close decision. In this fight with an elite wrestler and grappler in Grant Dawson, the question is whether his defensive grappling, mainly his takedown defense, can hold up for long enough to get off his own offensive attack.

Rebecki currently sits at just a 50% takedown defensive rate during his UFC career, but if you look at who he has been grounded by, it is often fighters adept at mixing striking and grappling. In this matchup with Dawson, there is no secret what the gameplan will be for both fighters.

Rebecki will want to keep things on the feet as he looks to score a knockout over a vulnerable Dawson, while Dawson will look to capitalize on any mistake Rebecki makes in overextending himself.

One of the reasons I favor Dawson is this spot is the size advantage he will enjoy. Dawson is three inches taller than Rebecki, and has a six inch reach advantage. Rebecki has no choice but to move forward, not only due to the style of fight he wants to create but due to needing to operate at a closer range. Dawson needs to be more defensively sound in the early going while Rebecki is fresh, but eventually he should be able to get the fight where he wants by using a well-timed shot and/or clinch.

Whenever Dawson is successful in his takedown attempts, I expect him to make Rebecki work on the mat and defend submissions. That could potentially lead to a stamina-draining situation similar to the one we saw in Dawson’s victory over Rafa Garcia, another fighter who didn’t seem to have any cardio issues before he was in the cage with Dawson.

Rebecki won’t be easy to hold down, and this may be one of those fights where the relentless grappler in Dawson just spams mat returns. At DraftKings, Dawson is lined at over/under 3.5 takedowns, juiced to the over. +450 for six more takedowns may actually have some value if this fight is indeed extended for all 15 minutes.

Dawson vs. Rebecki Pick, Prediction

Dawson’s loss to King Green is undoubtedly a concerning result considering how little power seemed to be behind that particular shot. The loss to Manuel Torres shouldn’t be surprising either, and it’s worth noting Dawson was a bigger favorite over Torres than he is on Saturday over Rebecki.

However, Rebecki is not somebody known for his one-punch knockout power, with just one KO victory since the end of 2021. There shouldn’t be an analyst boasting full confidence in Dawson’s durability heading into this fight, but this is still a matchup where he has the biggest single skill edge via his grappling.

I don’t expect this fight to produce any fight of the night awards this time around, as Dawson will fight more conservatively until he secures the positions needed on the mat. Rebecki is very hard to finish, thus Dawson doing enough to earn yet another unanimous decision is the most likely outcome.

John’s Pick: Grant Dawson by decision +125 (FanDuel)

About the Author

John Lanfranca is a contributor at Action Network who specializes in NFL betting, with a focus on sides, totals, and player props. He has been betting since 2006 John has been involved with football since a young age and currently coaches at the high school level. He has cashed multiple five-figure entries in NFL DFS, which coincided with him entering the industry with Fantasysharks, where he contributed as a podcaster while also writing daily articles on betting, DFS, and the NFL Draft. John has shown a consistent ability to win when betting the NFL against the spread, regularly finishing seasons with a winning percentage in the 55-60% range

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