Welcome to Baseball America’s latest in-season projection of the 2026 college baseball NCAA Tournament bracket.

In the past, BA utilized our College Baseball Top 25 rankings to determine a projected national seed order. In an effort to avoid large swings, though, this year we are leaning on projection to determine what the field could look like on Selection Monday, rather than present a live snapshot of the current hierarchy.

Additionally, we are now showing our work on the two-seed line due to the NCAA selection committee’s updated seeding format. Beginning this season, the committee will rank the top 32 teams, not just the 16 regional hosts. Seeds 17-32 will be slotted into regionals based on that ranking: teams 29-32 will be paired with the top four national seeds, 25-28 with seeds 5-8, 21-24 with seeds 9-12 and 17-20 with seeds 13-16. The projected bracket below is designed to reflect how that structure will work, even if the committee ultimately does not make its full two-seed rankings public. 

The SEC continues to lead our latest projection with 12 total bids followed by the ACC (9), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (5), Conference USA (3), the American (3) and the Sun Belt (2). 

Before we get into the latest bracketology, here’s a breakdown of recent results that had postseason implications and factored heavily into our latest bracket. You can also jump right to the new Field of 64 by clicking here.

Kansas Firmly Enters Host Territory

We’ve been extremely cautious when it comes to projecting a Big 12 host, opting not to do so over the last couple weeks after the committee made clear last year that it would take an overwhelming resume, likely from the league champion, to land above the host line. TCU won 19 conference games and finished the regular season inside the top 18 in RPI and still did not host. That precedent has been instructive.

Then Kansas went into Manhattan and swept rival Kansas State, improving to 17-1 over its last 18, 17-4 in the Big 12, No. 12 in RPI and 12-3 in Quadrant I games. It also controls its own path to the regular-season title with series remaining against Arizona, West Virginia and BYU before the conference tournament.

That resume and path aligned with a host projection and even prompted consideration for a top-eight national seed, which would bring homefield advantage through the first two rounds of the tournament. There has never been a Lawrence Regional. Kansas is in position to change that.

Alabama Holds Inside Host Territory Despite Weekend Skid

Alabama isn’t making its projection easy. The Crimson Tide have lost three straight weekend series and enter the final stretch at 10-11 in SEC play and 29-16 overall, neither of which cleanly supports a top-16 seed.

But the path is still there. Alabama hosts Vanderbilt this week, travels to South Carolina and closes at home against Ole Miss. It’s not an easy stretch, but it presents a realistic opportunity to add the six or so wins likely needed to secure postseason baseball in Tuscaloosa.

Last year, Alabama was one of three SEC teams to reach 16 conference wins and the only one that did not host. The difference this year is its RPI. Even at a game below .500 in league play, the Crimson Tide sit No. 7 in RPI, a mark that keeps them in position if they reach the necessary win total.

Sun Belt Cannibalism

Last week, the Baseball America Field of 64 projection included four Sun Belt teams, the most of any mid-major league. This week, that number is down to two. It’s a sharp shift, but one driven by results.

Louisiana, a bubble team, took two of three from Arkansas State, also on the bubble, while Texas State dropped two of three to Coastal Carolina to fall to 2-9 in Quad I games. As of April 28, Coastal Carolina leads the league at 17-4, four games clear of Southern Miss and App State. Troy sits fourth and remains outside the field, South Alabama is fifth at 11-10 and Texas State, Arkansas State, UL Monroe, Georgia State and Marshall are all tied at 10-11, with Louisiana just behind at 9-12.

There are strong RPIs throughout the league, but the conference records are becoming difficult to overcome. Last year, Troy went 18-12 in Sun Belt play, finished with 39 wins and a top-50 RPI and still missed the Field of 64. None of this year’s bubble teams appear likely to significantly surpass those marks if they even reach them.

The Sun Belt is strong, but that strength is showing up more as parity than tournament volume.

Big Two-Seed Movers

There was significant movement along the two-seed line last week. A few cases stand out:

• Even in a down year for the Big West, UC Santa Barbara looked to be tracking toward a strong two-seed behind excellent pitching and steady league results. That changed after it dropped a home series to Cal State Fullerton. The loss pushed its RPI to No. 38 as of Tuesday and made it difficult to project as a two-seed this week, especially with remaining series against Cal State Bakersfield, Cal State Northridge and UC Riverside, all deep Quad IV matchups that offer little upside. The result also impacts the Big West’s bid-stealing outlook. UC Santa Barbara will likely need to dominate the final three weeks to secure protected at-large status. If it doesn’t, the conference tournament becomes one of the more important mid-major events to track.
• If the season ended today, Arizona State could fall toward the back of the two-seed line with the No. 43 RPI and a 3-5 record in Quad I games, both a limited sample and an underwhelming mark. We’re still projecting the Sun Devils to take care of business down the stretch, which would support a more comfortable two-seed placement. This week’s trip to UCF carries added weight in that regard.
• Jacksonville State continues to profile as a two-seed out of a projected three-bid Conference USA, though we were less bullish on the league in our latest projection. The Gamecocks enter Week 12 at 36-9 overall and 18-3 in conference play, marks that align with two-seed status, especially if they navigate this weekend’s series at Missouri State. For Conference USA to secure three two-seeds, though, each team would need to finish with strong RPI positioning, a difficult task given the league’s strength and the impact of individual losses. Unlike the Sun Belt, Conference USA has a clear top three that are in tournament range, but sustaining that level across the final stretch will be challenging.
• Tennessee has played its way back into two-seed territory after spending weeks on the wrong side of the bubble. The Volunteers are up to No. 29 in RPI after taking two of three against Alabama two weeks after a sweep of Mississippi State in Starkville. Their closing stretch—Kentucky, Texas and Oklahoma—will provide a clear test. A steady finish should secure favorable seeding, and at this point, it would take a significant collapse for Tennessee to fall out of the field.
• East Carolina is also back in two-seed range, having won three of its last four weekends, including a sweep of South Florida. The committee has historically rewarded the Pirates with favorable seeding when their overall record and RPI are strong, which is the case again this season.

BA’s Biggest Projections

The Baseball America Field of 64 projection is exactly that, a projection. It is not a snapshot of the field if the season ended today, but an attempt to forecast where things are headed based on likely outcomes. That approach was particularly important in two cases this week:

• Virginia Tech was one of the last teams into the field despite sitting just two games above .500 overall and 11-13 in ACC play. The Hokies have faced the No. 4 strength of schedule and sit at No. 38 in RPI with series remaining against Cal, UNC Greensboro and Clemson. It’s a favorable closing stretch that could improve both their overall and conference records. If that happens, their underlying metrics are strong enough to warrant inclusion, even if it comes on the back end of the field. We leaned into that outcome.
• Vanderbilt does not currently have the profile of a tournament team, most notably with an RPI of No. 69. Even at 13 conference wins, that number would likely fall short, aligning more closely with South Carolina’s 2022 resume, which missed the field at that mark, than with recent SEC teams that have been selected. The projection hinges on Vanderbilt exceeding that threshold. The Commodores travel to Alabama, then to Missouri, before closing at home against South Carolina. It’s a stretch against teams in the bottom half of the SEC that should provide a path to 15 or more conference wins, which would be enough to support a tournament berth.