Aug 15, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, UNITED STATES; Chase Hooper during weigh ins for UFC 319 at Radius Chicago. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images
Chase Hooper made his UFC debut at just 20 years old back in 2019, earning his spot through Dana White’s Contender Series with a slick triangle choke. Six years later, ‘The Dream’ has matured into one of the most dangerous grapplers in the lightweight division, riding a five fight winning streak that includes some impressive names.
Standing in his way at UFC 319 is Alexander Hernandez. ‘The Great Ape’ has been around the UFC block since 2018, experiencing the highs of spectacular knockouts and the lows of tough losses against elite competition. His recent two fight winning streak shows he’s found some consistency at 32 years old. Both men need this win badly. Hooper needs to continue his rise toward title contention, and Hernandez needs to prove he still belongs among the division’s best.
Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez Preview
Chase Hooper brings his southpaw stance and massive physical advantages at 6’1″ with a 74 inch reach. He towers over the 5’9″ Hernandez who sports a 72 inch reach. That four inch height difference becomes even more significant when Hooper uses his length to control distance and set up his takedown attempts. His striking numbers show steady improvement with 4.53 significant strikes landed per minute at 51% accuracy, but everyone knows his real weapon lies on the ground.
Hooper attempts 2.59 takedowns per fight with 34% success and he averages 2.2 submission attempts per fight. His takedown defense sits at 55%. The striking defense of 38% looks concerning on paper, but absorbing only 2.96 strikes per minute suggests he’s good at avoiding prolonged striking battles.
Alexander Hernandez lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute at 40% accuracy while absorbing 4.62 strikes per minute. His 57% striking defense is significantly better than Hooper’s, and his 71% takedown defense could be the key stat in this entire fight. With only 0.1 submission attempts per fight, Hernandez clearly prefers to keep things standing where his power and experience give him the best chance of victory.
Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez MMA Betting Odds
The oddsmakers have spoken on this matchup. According to FanDuel, Chase Hooper is a heavy favorite at -320. Meanwhile Alexander Hernandez returns at +260 as an underdog. These odds suggest the betting public believes strongly in Hooper’s ability to get this fight to the ground and impose his will.
The odds for the fight going the distance have also come out. The probability of the fight ending before the final bell is lower and the odds (-168) reflect that. The odds for the fight seeing the judges scorecards stand at +132
Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez Predictions And Picks
Hooper’s length and submission skills make him extremely dangerous once this fight hits the mat, but he needs to get past Hernandez’s improved takedown defense first. Hernandez’s best path to victory involves using his striking experience and power to hurt Hooper before the grappling exchanges begin. His orthodox stance creates some interesting angles against Hooper’s southpaw approach, and his willingness to trade in the pocket could pay dividends if he can land something significant early.
Hooper will most likely use his reach advantage to set up takedown attempts while avoiding Hernandez’s best shots. His submission game has reached a level where even elite grapplers struggle to escape, and Hernandez’s limited ground game makes him vulnerable once the fight goes down.
If we bet on the fight, we are going with Chase Hooper to win via submission.
(All odds taken from FanDuel. Bet on the most up-to-date MMA odds, lines, and spreads with FanDuel Sportsbook)
(Image Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski – Imagn Images)
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