The ATP Masters 1000 Madrid Round of 16 continues with two intriguing matchups where underdogs could offer value. Terence Atmane’s strong performances this week suggest he can challenge Alexander Zverev, while Karen Khachanov’s experience and head-to-head advantage make him a solid pick to keep things close against Jakub Mensik.
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid 1/16-Finals
Atmane – Zverev: 28.04.2026 20:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Terence Atmane has lost three of his last five matches. Two weeks ago in Barcelona, the Frenchman lost to Fils in the opening round in three tight sets. Atmane has never made it past the qualifying tournament here. This week in Madrid, Atmane won the opening-round match against Kecmanovic in straight sets, offering no breakpoints. In the second round, Atmane defeated Humbert in two tiebreaks.
Alexander Zverev has won four of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, the German lost to Cobolli in the semifinals in straight sets. He was the champion here in 2018 and 2021. This week in Madrid, the German defeated Navone in the opening match, three sets to one. He struggled in the second set on his serve. Last season, Zverev lost to Cerundolo in the fourth round in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Zverev is the clear favourite in this matchup, but we disagree. Atmane played well in Barcelona and in Madrid as well. He defeated solid clay-court players. We believe that if he serves well, the Frenchman will keep this match close.
That being said, Atmane covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Terence Atmane +4.5 games handicap @1.57 @bet365
Khachanov – Mensik: 27.04.2026 20:30 CEST
H2H: 2-0
Karen Khachanov has lost three of his last five matches. Two weeks ago in Barcelona, Khachanov lost to Ugo Carabelli in the opening round in straight sets. This week in Madrid, the Russian defeated Walton in straight sets. He offered and saved three breakpoints. He was the quarterfinalist here in 2023. Last season in Madrid, Khachanov lost to Tommy Paul in the third round in three sets.
Jakub Mensik has won three of his last five matches. The last match he played before the ATP Madrid was in Miami. In his opening clay-court match of the season, the Czech defeated Damm in the opening match in straight sets. He served well, saving both breakpoints. The outstanding fact is that he hit 24 winners with just 5 unforced errors. Last season in Madrid, Mensik lost to Cerundolo in the quarterfinals in three sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Khachanov is the slight underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Khachanov won both head-to-head meetings against Mensik and is a better clay-court player. We expect Khachanov to keep this match close.
That being said, Khachanov covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Karen Khachanov +1.5 games handicap @1.91 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
