A huge schedule of first-round matches in Tokyo is set for Thursday, including a showdown between Taylor Fritz and Gabriel Diallo. Ugo Humbert and Jenson Brooksby also find themselves on the order of play.

Gabriel Diallo vs. (2) Taylor Fritz

Fritz and Diallo will be squaring off for the third time in their careers and for the third time this season when they meet again at the Japan Open on Thursday. The fifth-ranked American needed five sets to prevail at Wimbledon, but he destroyed Diallo 6-4, 6-2 at the Toronto Masters.

Diallo is a huge hitter and that makes him dangerous on any given day, but he may be hitting the wall near the end of a long and successful season. The 35th-ranked Canadian has not won multiple matches at any tournament since advancing to the Mallorca quarterfinals in June. Meanwhile, Fritz is surging toward another berth in the Nitto ATP Finals. The 27-year-old reached the U.S. Open quarterfinals and he is coming off Laver Cup heroics for Team World, which triumphed thanks in large part to Fritz’s wins over Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev. This should be one-way traffic for the No. 2 seed.

Pick: Fritz in 2

(6) Ugo Humbert vs. (PR) Jenson Brooksby

Humbert and Brooksby will also be going head-to-head for the third time in their careers on Thursday. They have split their two previous encounters; Humbert cruised 6-1, 6-4 on the indoor hard courts of Basel in 2022 before Brooksby got the job done 6-7(7), 6-4, 6-4 this summer in the Eastbourne semis.

In part due to some physical issues, Humbert has won just a single match since then–over world No. 177 Coleman Wong at the Cincinnati Masters. The 24th-ranked Frenchman lost right away at Wimbledon and at the U.S. Open. Brooksby is in considerably superior form; the 86th-ranked American advanced two rounds in Cincinnati and played two five-setters in New York–beating Aleksandar Vukic before falling to Flavio Cobolli in a super-tiebreaker. Brooksby may be lower ranked, but he has to be considered the favorite in this matchup.

Pick: Brooksby in 2